Cedarfest

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 1 15 7 22
2 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 15 15 30
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 17 21 38
4 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 18 22 40
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 23 26 49
6 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 33 20 53
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 25 38 63
8 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 46 18 64
9 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 35 36 71
10 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 21 54 75
11 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 32 43 75
12 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 2 53 35 88
13 Rockets Rockets Rockets 47 43 90
14 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 45 54 99
15 Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 55 48 103
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 3 3 1 8 15 Lucas Rodenroth '27 [1-4]
Cash Bilton '27 [1-2]
Charles Regan '28 [3-4]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 1 5 2 2 6 15 Marco Constantini '27
Leo Barch '27
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 2 1 10 4 17 Elliott Yoder '29 [1-4]
Molly Conroy '13 [1-2]
Elena Gill '29 [3-4]
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 4 6 5 3 18 Reed Schworm '29
Henry Wilson '28
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 6 10 3 2 21 Caroline Henry '27
Sabrina Gilles '29
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 1 15 6 1 23 Emerson Becker '28
Izanuel Foster '28
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 12 4 4 5 25 Luke Sadalla '28 [1-4]
Marco Messerli '29 [1-2]
Caden Greco '28 [3-4]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 9 5 7 11 32 Megan Pedersen '29
John O’Connell '28
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 7 11 8 7 33 Thomas Weykamp '28 [1-2]
Ryan Dodge '26 [3-4]
Sophia Worden '27 [1-2]
Talena Monasmith '26 [3-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 8 9 9 9 35 George Prokop '28
Morgyn Dempsey '29
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 13 8 14 10 45 Nathaniel Bacheller '28
Holden Harris '29
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 11 7 13 15 46 Grace Vanstratt '28
Kirsten Tiedeman '27
Rockets Rockets Rockets 10 12 11 14 47
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 2 15 14 12 12 53 Anna Rayhorn '27
Jenny Leitz '27
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 14 13 15 13 55 Piper Luke '26 [1-4]
Elijah Marut '28 [1-2]
Adam Bryan '26 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 1 1 3 2 1 7 Will Turner '28
Erica Burcar '27
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 5 2 4 4 15 Katherine Sorbie '27 [1-4]
Jack Giacobbe '29 [1-2]
Brendan Potter '29 [3-4]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 3 10 3 2 18 Jack Charlton '27
Tanner Leikam '29
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 4 7 6 3 20 Caden Meyers '27
Andrew Acton '28
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 1 7 6 21 Rowan Spates '29 [1-4]
Shane Churilla '29 [1-2]
Claire Chen '29 [3-4]
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 10 6 1 5 22 Jenna Drobny '27
Devin O'Connor '26
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 9 4 5 8 26 Emma Leidheiser '27
Jillian Hickman '27
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 2 2 14 10 9 35 Keith Wright '29
Natalie Hanks '25
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 12 8 9 7 36 Lucia Sharp '29
Addison Koss '29
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 11 9 8 10 38 Heather Mooney '29
Charlie Meyers '29
Rockets Rockets Rockets 6 11 13 13 43
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 8 5 15 15 43 Charlotte Bach '28 [1-2]
Miranda Odio '29 [3-4]
Melania Laubsch '28 [1-2]
Sydney Ingraham '29 [3-4]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 14 12 11 11 48 Claire Devoogd '26 [1-4]
Madison Koscielski '26 [1-2]
Luiza Wernz Muller '26 [3-4]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 13 13 14 14 54 Caroline Henry '27
Sabrina Gilles '29
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 15 15 12 12 54 Lucy Herlein '29
Samantha Brandon '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers1133
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen2244
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks3355
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 14466
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 25577
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky One6688
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats 17799
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats 288110110
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 199111111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2110110112112
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes111111113113
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers112112114114
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals113113115115
RocketsRockets Rockets11411411
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos11511522

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers2244
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen3355
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks4466
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 15577
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 26688
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky One7799
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats 188110110
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats 299111111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 1110110112112
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2111111113113
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes112112114114
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers113113115115
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals11411411
RocketsRockets Rockets11511522
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Nathaniel Bacheller '28 Holden Harris '29
Lakers Lucy Herlein '29 Samantha Brandon '26
Hope College Hope College Caroline Henry '27 Sabrina Gilles '29
Flying Dutchmen Caroline Henry '27 Sabrina Gilles '29
Miami University Miami University Reed Schworm '29 Henry Wilson '28
Red Hawks Jenna Drobny '27 Devin O'Connor '26
Michigan State University Michigan State University Thomas Weykamp '28 [1-2]
Ryan Dodge '26 [3-4]
Sophia Worden '27 [1-2]
Talena Monasmith '26 [3-4]
Spartans 1 Caden Meyers '27 Andrew Acton '28
Michigan State University Michigan State University George Prokop '28 Morgyn Dempsey '29
Spartans 2 Lucia Sharp '29 Addison Koss '29
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Lucas Rodenroth '27 [1-4] Cash Bilton '27 [1-2]
Charles Regan '28 [3-4]
MTU Husky One Katherine Sorbie '27 [1-4] Jack Giacobbe '29 [1-2]
Brendan Potter '29 [3-4]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Marco Constantini '27 Leo Barch '27
Wildcats 1 Will Turner '28 Erica Burcar '27
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Anna Rayhorn '27 Jenny Leitz '27
Wildcats 2 Keith Wright '29 Natalie Hanks '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Luke Sadalla '28 [1-4] Marco Messerli '29 [1-2]
Caden Greco '28 [3-4]
Wildcats 1 Heather Mooney '29 Charlie Meyers '29
Northwestern University Northwestern University Elliott Yoder '29 [1-4] Molly Conroy '13 [1-2]
Elena Gill '29 [3-4]
Wildcats 2 Rowan Spates '29 [1-4] Shane Churilla '29 [1-2]
Claire Chen '29 [3-4]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Emerson Becker '28 Izanuel Foster '28
Buckeyes Emma Leidheiser '27 Jillian Hickman '27
Purdue University Purdue University Megan Pedersen '29 John O’Connell '28
Boilermakers Charlotte Bach '28 [1-2]
Miranda Odio '29 [3-4]
Melania Laubsch '28 [1-2]
Sydney Ingraham '29 [3-4]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Piper Luke '26 [1-4] Elijah Marut '28 [1-2]
Adam Bryan '26 [3-4]
Cardinals Claire Devoogd '26 [1-4] Madison Koscielski '26 [1-2]
Luiza Wernz Muller '26 [3-4]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Grace Vanstratt '28 Kirsten Tiedeman '27
Broncos Jack Charlton '27 Tanner Leikam '29

Conditions — 10/25/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1030.3 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.6 kn
avg  ·  max 2.8 kn
Gusts to 8.2 kn
From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1030.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 5 kn* · E 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan State: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.32 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Michigan State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →