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ILCA South

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Mats Braaten '27 2 1 1 3 1 1 4 13
Georgetown University Georgetown University Peter Barnard '27 1 4 2 2 2 2 3 16
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Pierce Brindley '28 5 3 4 6 7 3 7 35
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Robert Richards '29 3 10 3 1 8 9 5 39
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Teddy Martin '27 4 5 8 11 4 6 1 39
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Spencer Dominguez '27 9 6 5 7 3 5 8 43
Georgetown University Georgetown University Owen Kohut '29 10 2 6 9 10 BKD 2 46
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Umi Noritake '28 8 8 7 4 5 10 6 48
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Blake Goodwin '27 7 9 10 5 6 4 13 54
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Sean Trudell '28 6 7 9 8 9 7 10 56
Georgetown University Georgetown University Peter Herlihy '29 11 11 11 10 12 8 9 72
Georgetown University Georgetown University James Martino '28 12 12 14 12 11 13 11 85
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Walter Roou '25 13 13 12 13 13 12 14 90
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Jonah Willoughby '27 14 15 13 14 14 11 12 93
George Washington University George Washington University Anton Mirkin '28 15 14 15 15 15 DNS 15 105

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  15 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Mats Braaten '27St. Mary's College of Maryland7/72.975.94+2.9781st → 99th11.4<1%1.9 / 6.5
2Peter Barnard '27Georgetown University Hoyas 17/74.065.26+1.1995th → 99th2.46%2.3 / 4.3
3Pierce Brindley '28Old Dominion University Monarchs 27/72.673.68+1.0171st → 93rd2.214%5.0 / 7.1
4Robert Richards '29U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 57/72.433.11+0.6862nd → 84th1.015%5.6 / 7.6
4Teddy Martin '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 17/72.843.15+0.3178th → 84th0.229%5.6 / 6.8
6Spencer Dominguez '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 27/72.913.18+0.2779th → 85th0.245%6.1 / 6.6
7Umi Noritake '28U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 47/72.922.74−0.1779th → 73rd0.159%6.9 / 6.6
8Blake Goodwin '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 17/72.112.26+0.1655th → 59th0.139%7.7 / 8.3
9Owen Kohut '29Georgetown University Hoyas 27/73.422.73−0.6989th → 73rd1.290%7.9 / 5.5
10Sean Trudell '28U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 37/72.532.55+0.0266th → 67th0.063%8.0 / 7.4
11Peter Herlihy '29Georgetown University Hoyas 47/72.471.60−0.8762nd → 40th2.388%10.3 / 7.5
12James Martino '28Georgetown University Hoyas 37/70.850.56−0.2920th → 15th0.275%12.1 / 10.7
13Walter Roou '25Christopher Newport University7/70.640.43−0.2217th → 12th0.181%12.9 / 11.1
14Jonah Willoughby '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 37/70.58-0.24−0.8215th → 4th1.586%13.3 / 11.2
15Anton Mirkin '28George Washington University7/7-0.40-2.53−2.133rd → 1st3.5>99%15.0 / 12.7

Conditions — 09/06/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.2 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From SSW (198°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1013.2 hPa Rain0.24 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →