Jefferson Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 9 15 24
2 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 34 17 51
3 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 29 23 52
4 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 25 34 59
5 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 40 24 64
6 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 25 48 73
7 American University American University Eagles 39 43 82
8 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 51 48 99
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 9 James Lilyquist '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Manternach '26 [3-4, 7]
Arturo Soriano Iii '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Daniel Langdon '26 [3-4, 7]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 2 4 1 3 2 5 8 25 Charlotte Stillman '27 [1-6]
Tyler Boissevain '28 [7]
Meredith Endres '26 [1-4]
Tyler Boissevain '28 [5-6]
Tyler Samdal '27 [7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 5 2 4 1 4 7 2 25 Grace Earl '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Arda Alpan '29 [3-4, 7]
Abigail Burritt '29 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 4 5 6 4 3 2 5 29 Sophie Grigg '28 [1-7]
Eli Leopold '28 [1-4]
Nicholas Stroble '26 [5-7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 3 3 3 5 8 6 6 34 Henry Myrick '26
Aliyah Oakley '27
American University American University Eagles 6 6 8 7 5 3 4 39 Ryan Curtis '26 [1-7]
Ella Dentinger '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Keira Cowher '29 [3-4, 7]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 7 8 5 6 7 4 3 40 Sarina Schmoyer '27
Liam Holder '28
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 8 7 7 8 6 8 7 51 John Anthony Caraig '27 [1-4, 7]
Christian Aron '27 [5-6]
Erin Finan '28 [1-4, 7]
Emma Mcalarney '29 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 1 5 5 1 1 1 15 Zachary Bender '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Robert Riecker '26 [3-4]
Alexander Read '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Kelsey Lovercheck '26 [3-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 1 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 17 Gracie Goodwin '29 [1-2, 5-7]
Benjamin Merritt '29 [3-4]
Lila Gibson '26 [1-2, 5-7]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 3 4 1 1 8 4 2 23 Christopher Hoppe '29
Connor Smith '29
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 4 2 3 4 4 3 4 24 Coleman Campbell '27
Lee Wehr '29
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 7 4 2 3 5 8 34 Eric Johnson '27 [1-4]
Conor Farah '27 [5-7]
Alexa Bodor '26 [1-4]
American University American University Eagles 7 5 6 6 6 8 5 43 Lance Shrum '28 [1-7]
Edie Pressel '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Alexander Dallendorfer '29 [3-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 2 6 8 7 8 7 6 6 48 Robert Cunningham '29 [1-2, 5-7]
David Samy '28 [3-4]
Claire Calkins '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 8 6 8 7 5 7 7 48 Christian Aron '27 [1-2]
Harrison Blahunka '26 [3-7]
Emma Mcalarney '29 [1-2]
Zerima King '28 [3-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles1133557
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals2244668
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps4466882
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3355771
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 15577113
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 26688224
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies7711335
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe8822446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles2244668
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals3355771
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps5577113
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack4466882
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 16688224
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos 27711335
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies8822446
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Ryan Curtis '26 [1-7] Ella Dentinger '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Keira Cowher '29 [3-4, 7]
Eagles Lance Shrum '28 [1-7] Edie Pressel '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Alexander Dallendorfer '29 [3-4]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America John Anthony Caraig '27 [1-4, 7]
Christian Aron '27 [5-6]
Erin Finan '28 [1-4, 7]
Emma Mcalarney '29 [5-6]
Cardinals Christian Aron '27 [1-2]
Harrison Blahunka '26 [3-7]
Emma Mcalarney '29 [1-2]
Zerima King '28 [3-7]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Sarina Schmoyer '27 Liam Holder '28
Wolfpack Coleman Campbell '27 Lee Wehr '29
University of Maryland University of Maryland Sophie Grigg '28 [1-7] Eli Leopold '28 [1-4]
Nicholas Stroble '26 [5-7]
Terps Christopher Hoppe '29 Connor Smith '29
University of Virginia University of Virginia Henry Myrick '26 Aliyah Oakley '27
Wahoos 1 Gracie Goodwin '29 [1-2, 5-7]
Benjamin Merritt '29 [3-4]
Lila Gibson '26 [1-2, 5-7]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Grace Earl '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Arda Alpan '29 [3-4, 7]
Abigail Burritt '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Wahoos 2 Robert Cunningham '29 [1-2, 5-7]
David Samy '28 [3-4]
Claire Calkins '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech James Lilyquist '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Manternach '26 [3-4, 7]
Arturo Soriano Iii '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Daniel Langdon '26 [3-4, 7]
Hokies Zachary Bender '28 [1-2, 5-7]
Robert Riecker '26 [3-4]
Alexander Read '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Kelsey Lovercheck '26 [3-4]
William and Mary William and Mary Charlotte Stillman '27 [1-6]
Tyler Boissevain '28 [7]
Meredith Endres '26 [1-4]
Tyler Boissevain '28 [5-6]
Tyler Samdal '27 [7]
Tribe Eric Johnson '27 [1-4]
Conor Farah '27 [5-7]
Alexa Bodor '26 [1-4]

Conditions — 09/27/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From NNE (23°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.4 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1013.9 hPa Rain0.33 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Virginia: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.40 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Virginia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Virginia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →