| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Peter Barnard '27 | 21 |
| 2 | |
Georgetown University | Owen Kohut '29 | 23 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Mats Braaten '27 | 49 |
| 4 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Teddy Martin '27 | 50 |
| 5 | |
Georgetown University | Peter Herlihy '29 | 53 |
| 6 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | 55 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Blake Goodwin '27 | 61 |
| 8 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Reed Mcallister '27 | 74 |
| 9 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Spencer Dominguez '27 | 79 |
| 10 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Jack Carter '27 | 79 |
| 11 | |
Old Dominion University | Pierce Brindley '28 | 84 |
| 12 |  |
Princeton University | Ossian Kamal '26 | 85 |
| 13 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Benjamin Mohrman '29 | 90 |
| 14 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Sean Trudell '28 | 93 |
| 15 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Dante Garcia '28 | 100 |
| 16 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Robert Richards '29 | 113 |
| 17 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Thomas Allison '27 | 123 |
| 18 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Robert Finora '27 | 136 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Barnard '27 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 8/8 | 4.05 | 5.30 | +1.25 | 95th → 99th | 3.2 | 4% | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| 2 | Owen Kohut '29 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 8/8 | 3.41 | 5.14 | +1.73 | 89th → 99th | 5.9 | 2% | 2.9 / 6.9 |
| 3 | Mats Braaten '27 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 8/8 | 2.99 | 3.42 | +0.42 | 81st → 89th | 0.5 | 22% | 6.1 / 8.0 |
| 4 | Teddy Martin '27 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 8/8 | 3.18 | 3.49 | +0.31 | 85th → 90th | 0.3 | 33% | 6.2 / 7.5 |
| 5 | Peter Herlihy '29 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 8/8 | 2.59 | 3.45 | +0.87 | 68th → 89th | 2.0 | 22% | 6.6 / 9.1 |
| 6 | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 8/8 | 2.64 | 3.27 | +0.63 | 70th → 86th | 1.1 | 22% | 6.9 / 8.9 |
| 7 | Blake Goodwin '27 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 8/8 | 2.09 | 2.46 | +0.37 | 55th → 62nd | 0.3 | 13% | 7.6 / 10.5 |
| 8 | Reed Mcallister '27 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 | 8/8 | 2.73 | 2.41 | −0.33 | 73rd → 61st | 0.3 | 64% | 9.2 / 8.6 |
| 9 | Jack Carter '27 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 8/8 | 1.53 | 2.65 | +1.12 | 38th → 70th | 3.2 | 19% | 9.9 / 11.9 |
| 9 | Spencer Dominguez '27 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 8/8 | 2.91 | 2.46 | −0.45 | 79th → 62nd | 0.7 | 78% | 9.9 / 8.2 |
| 11 | Pierce Brindley '28 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 8/8 | 2.67 | 1.99 | −0.67 | 71st → 52nd | 1.5 | 75% | 10.5 / 8.9 |
| 12 | Ossian Kamal '26 | Princeton University | 8/8 | 2.40 | 2.24 | −0.17 | 61st → 58th | 0.1 | 68% | 10.6 / 9.5 |
| 13 | Benjamin Mohrman '29 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 | 8/8 | 1.70 | 1.93 | +0.23 | 42nd → 49th | 0.1 | 48% | 11.2 / 11.3 |
| 14 | Sean Trudell '28 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 8/8 | 2.51 | 1.89 | −0.62 | 64th → 48th | 1.3 | 83% | 11.6 / 9.3 |
| 15 | Dante Garcia '28 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 | 8/8 | 1.44 | 1.81 | +0.36 | 35th → 44th | 0.4 | 54% | 12.5 / 12.2 |
| 16 | Robert Richards '29 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 | 8/8 | 2.42 | 1.12 | −1.29 | 61st → 25th | 5.9 | 97% | 14.1 / 9.6 |
| 17 | Thomas Allison '27 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 8/8 | 1.21 | 1.18 | −0.04 | 28th → 27th | 0.0 | 90% | 15.4 / 12.7 |
| 18 | Robert Finora '27 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 | 8/8 | 1.26 | 0.28 | −0.98 | 29th → 10th | 2.5 | 99% | 17.0 / 12.6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
