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MAISA Top 9 ILCA 7

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Teddy Martin '27 1 5 9 3 2 2 9 3 1 4 2 5 4 50
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Mats Braaten '27 5 1 6 4 7 6 5 2 4 1 4 2 6 53
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Pierce Brindley '28 3 RDG 3 7 1 3 1 9 2 9 6 4 3 55
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Spencer Dominguez '27 4 3 2 6 6 4 2 13 5 11 10 7 1 74
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Reed Mcallister '27 8 12 4 5 5 11 3 4 6 2 1 10 7 78
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 7 11 7 2 11 12 4 1 7 3 3 3 10 81
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Robert Richards '29 12 10 5 1 8 1 6 5 9 6 7 6 5 81
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Sean Trudell '28 6 6 8 10 4 9 12 7 3 5 5 1 12 88
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Blake Goodwin '27 9 2 11 9 14 5 7 8 12 8 8 13 8 114
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Benjamin Mohrman '29 2 8 1 14 10 13 13 6 11 14 11 12 2 117
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Thomas Allison '27 14 9 12 8 13 7 10 11 10 7 9 11 13 134
Cornell University Cornell University Marcus Greco '28 13 4 15 12 3 8 14 15 13 12 DNS 8 9 142
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Robert Finora '27 10 7 14 13 9 10 11 14 8 10 12 14 15 147
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jack Carter '27 11 14 10 11 12 14 8 12 14 13 13 9 11 152
George Washington University George Washington University Sam Schuhwerk '27 15 15 13 15 15 15 15 10 DNF 15 14 15 14 187

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  15 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Teddy Martin '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 113/133.183.75+0.5785th → 93rd1.314%3.8 / 5.7
2Mats Braaten '27St. Mary's College of Maryland13/132.993.80+0.8181st → 94th2.612%4.1 / 6.0
3Pierce Brindley '28Old Dominion University Monarchs 213/132.673.60+0.9371st → 92nd3.119%5.2 / 6.7
4Spencer Dominguez '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 213/132.912.71−0.2079th → 72nd0.243%5.7 / 6.1
5Reed Mcallister '27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 313/132.732.76+0.0373rd → 74th0.040%6.0 / 6.5
6Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 113/132.642.66+0.0270th → 70th0.040%6.2 / 6.8
6Robert Richards '29U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 413/132.422.75+0.3361st → 73rd0.528%6.2 / 7.3
8Sean Trudell '28U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 313/132.512.51+0.0064th → 64th0.044%6.8 / 7.1
9Blake Goodwin '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 113/132.091.80−0.2955th → 44th0.467%8.8 / 8.0
10Benjamin Mohrman '29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 213/131.701.47−0.2342nd → 37th0.251%9.0 / 8.9
11Thomas Allison '27Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 313/131.211.56+0.3528th → 39th0.658%10.3 / 9.9
12Marcus Greco '28Cornell University13/131.130.97−0.1625th → 22nd0.165%10.9 / 10.1
13Robert Finora '27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 113/131.260.99−0.2729th → 22nd0.381%11.3 / 9.8
14Jack Carter '27Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 213/131.530.96−0.5838th → 22nd1.694%11.7 / 9.2
15Sam Schuhwerk '27George Washington University13/130.13-1.30−1.449th → 1st3.997%14.4 / 11.9

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1024.1 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1024.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →