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MCSA Open Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT
Hope College Hope College Lucas Nykamp '29 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 4 26
Purdue University Purdue University Christopher Draper '29 2 RDG 1 1 2 7 8 1 5 1 1 1 32
University of Michigan University of Michigan Lorenzo Puertas '29 3 1 6 3 3 9 3 11 1 6 7 9 62
Northwestern University Northwestern University Nicholas Chesemore '27 7 RDG 3 5 8 6 9 4 7 5 4 2 66
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charlie Herrick '26 10 5 10 4 4 13 2 5 4 3 2 7 69
University of Chicago University of Chicago Max Naseef '28 4 3 4 9 6 10 4 12 9 4 5 3 73
Northwestern University Northwestern University George Warfel '26 5 4 8 6 5 4 7 7 3 11 11 6 77
Hope College Hope College Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale '28 8 10 5 8 9 2 5 2 14 8 6 5 82
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Quinn Kaiser '26 6 7 9 7 12 5 6 6 6 9 8 8 89
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Jack Armstrong '29 11 12 11 10 7 1 13 10 8 10 9 10 112
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Andrew Wiand '29 12 8 7 12 10 8 12 9 10 7 10 13 118
University of Chicago University of Chicago Alex Strassberg Alonso '28 14 16 13 11 13 11 14 8 11 12 12 12 147
Northwestern University Northwestern University Cole Abbott '26 13 13 12 14 15 12 11 14 13 14 13 11 155
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Jack Charlton '27 15 15 14 15 14 14 10 13 12 13 14 14 163
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Gavin Dempsey '26 9 11 15 13 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 178
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Marko Nedeljkovic '28 16 14 16 16 16 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 197

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  16 boats · 12 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Lucas Nykamp '29Hope College Flying Dutchmen 112/122.624.54+1.9369th → 99th9.82%2.2 / 5.8
2Christopher Draper '29Purdue University12/122.513.84+1.3364th → 94th4.911%3.9 / 6.0
3Lorenzo Puertas '29University of Michigan12/122.322.41+0.0860th → 61st0.030%5.2 / 6.5
4Charlie Herrick '26University of Wisconsin Badgers 112/122.002.07+0.0752nd → 53rd0.030%5.8 / 7.1
5Max Naseef '28University of Chicago Maroons 212/121.932.11+0.1848th → 55th0.133%6.1 / 7.3
6George Warfel '26Northwestern University Wildcats 212/121.722.02+0.2943rd → 53rd0.329%6.4 / 7.8
6Nicholas Chesemore '27Northwestern University Wildcats 112/122.252.51+0.2659th → 64th0.349%6.4 / 6.6
8Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale '28Hope College Flying Dutchmen 212/121.341.72+0.3831st → 43rd0.522%6.8 / 8.6
9Quinn Kaiser '26University of Wisconsin Badgers 312/121.811.83+0.0244th → 45th0.049%7.4 / 7.6
10Jack Armstrong '29Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 212/121.261.10−0.1630th → 25th0.162%9.3 / 8.8
11Andrew Wiand '29Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 112/121.020.96−0.0623rd → 22nd0.059%9.8 / 9.3
12Alex Strassberg Alonso '28University of Chicago Maroons 112/120.45-0.04−0.4913th → 6th1.078%12.2 / 10.6
13Cole Abbott '26Northwestern University Wildcats 312/120.47-0.35−0.8213th → 3rd2.987%12.9 / 10.5
14Jack Charlton '27Western Michigan University Broncos 112/12-0.22-0.65−0.444th → 2nd0.781%13.6 / 11.9
15Gavin Dempsey '26University of Wisconsin Badgers 212/121.210.24−0.9729th → 10th2.0>99%14.8 / 8.9
16Marko Nedeljkovic '28Western Michigan University Broncos 212/12-0.72-2.80−2.081st → 1st3.3>99%16.4 / 12.8

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1017.8 hPa Rain0.20 in

What this breeze does at Northwestern — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Northwestern in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →