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Seahawk Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 13 15 28
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 20 8 28
3 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Cocks 21 27 48
4 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 27 29 56
5 University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 37 37 74
6 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 38 51 89
7 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 43 47 90
8 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 37 56 93
9 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 52 44 96
10 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina The System 61 53 114
11 University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 66 51 117
12 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 72 52 124
13 Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 63 82 145
14 University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Smokies 80 79 159
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 1 4 3 1 3 13 Charles Mcgucken '29
Cyra Morano '29
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 9 4 1 1 3 2 20 Joshua Knowles '26
Emerson Teer '29
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Cocks 2 2 2 6 2 7 21 Henry Elmore '29
Alana Vodicka '26
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 3 6 5 2 6 5 27 Sofia Scarpa '26
Kyle Hanus '29
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 4 11 3 11 4 4 37 Brady Mayer '29
Howell Conrad '28
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 5 3 9 4 5 11 37 Andrew Ettlemyer '27
Ian De Jesus '27
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 6 5 6 5 10 6 38 Zechariah Frantz '25
Jaesi Hayes '28
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 10 7 7 10 8 1 43 Abbi Barnette '26 [1-6]
Luca Van Der Schoot '26 [1-3]
No Show [4-6]
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 7 12 8 7 9 9 52 Francis "Mac" Humphrey '26
Kenan Curtis '27
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina The System 8 9 10 13 13 8 61 John Bramson '28
Colby Luke-Judy '28
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 13 8 11 12 7 12 63
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 14 10 13 8 11 10 66 Bales Brannon '28
Macguire Reilley '26
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 11 13 14 9 12 13 72 Cameron Sumners '27
No Show
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Smokies 12 14 12 14 14 14 80 Erik Fontanella '28
Sean Eckel '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 1 2 1 1 2 8 Mason Mattice '28
Frances Hanson '29
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 2 3 3 2 4 1 15 Sean Ellison '29
Elizabeth Williamson '26
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Cocks 7 4 1 6 3 6 27 Sarah Plants '29
Theresa Ziehl '29
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 5 9 4 4 2 5 29 Annslee Maloy '26
Nicholas Norman '26
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 3 8 13 5 5 3 37 Karina Nieting '29
Luke Russell '26
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 4 7 6 11 9 7 44 Lilly Copplestone '29
Gwen Tripp '26
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 6 10 5 10 8 8 47 Christopher Tierney '27
Katie Grace Devore '27
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 8 6 8 8 12 9 51 Jess Dai '28
Lawson Policari '29
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 10 2 7 9 11 12 51 Holden Haenel '28
Mariam Kalathil '27
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 11 12 11 7 7 4 52 No Show
No Show
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina The System 13 11 9 3 6 11 53 Runyon Tyler '26
Hannah Pomeranzeva '28
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 9 5 10 12 10 10 56 Tyler Williams '26
Ian De Jesus '27
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Smokies 14 14 12 13 13 13 79 Rachel Shraga '28
Avery Padgett '29
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 12 13 14 14 14 DNS 82
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats111333
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles222444
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers333555
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs666888
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins555777
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins444666
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels777999
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina The System888101010
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Cocks121212141414
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks111111131313
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Smokies141414222
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Volunteers131313111
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks999111111
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub101010121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats222444
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles333555
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers444666
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs777999
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins666888
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins555777
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels888101010
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina The System999111111
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Cocks131313111
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks121212141414
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Smokies111333
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Volunteers141414222
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks101010121212
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub111111131313

Conditions — 10/18/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From SW (227°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1019.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UNC Wilmington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at UNC Wilmington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →