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Stuart Walker Trophy

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 16
2 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 17
3 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 20
4 Williams College Williams College Ephs 25
5 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 35
6 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 43
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen44
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 111
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 222
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 333
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats55
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs66

Division B

Team1B2B
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen1010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 177
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 288
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 399
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1111
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs1212

Conditions — 10/04/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1021.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SSW (197°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1021.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.54 ± 0.48)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →