Navigate

Buckeye Invite

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 7 4 11
2 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 5 19 24
3 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 1 13 11 24
4 Case Western Reserve University Case Western Reserve University CWRU Spartans 17 12 29
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 2 18 16 34
6 Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 24 23 47
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 1 1 2 5 Clayton Debruyn '30
Sydney Woodard '29
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 2 1 7 Matthew Murad '30
Nick Ambroziak '26
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 1 3 4 3 3 13 Lexi Hind '27
Stefan Ionascu '27
Case Western Reserve University Case Western Reserve University CWRU Spartans 5 3 4 5 17 Talia Ferreira '30
Sarah Godfrey '27
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 2 4 5 5 4 18 Erin Ellis '29
Griffin Owen '28
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 6 6 6 6 24 Oliver Coleman '30
Maddie Carlson '30
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 1 1 1 4 Everett Lehnert '30
Tobias Berman '27
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 1 3 2 4 2 11 Ava Molinski '26
Hazel Zielinski '27
Case Western Reserve University Case Western Reserve University CWRU Spartans 2 4 2 4 12 Jack Boucher '30
Catrin Bowen '28
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 2 5 5 3 3 16 Justin Gao '28
Abigail Dandridge '30
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 6 3 5 5 19 Stephen Ronan '30 [1-4]
Kate Aoki '30 [1-2]
Addison Koss '29 [3-4]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 4 6 DNF 6 23 Finnian Rowan '28
Veronica Niemeyer '30
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Case Western Reserve UniversityCase Western Reserve University CWRU Spartans15151717
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers16161818
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines20201616
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans17171919
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes 118182020
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes 219191515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Case Western Reserve UniversityCase Western Reserve University CWRU Spartans16161818
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers17171919
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines15151717
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans18182020
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes 119191515
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes 220201616

Conditions — 09/12/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From S (172°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine4.1 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain0.62 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn · SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Ohio State: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.19)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.75 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 16% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ohio State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Ohio State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →