Gavin D. Memorial Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue 17 11 28
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 20 25 45
3 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 28 40 68
4 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky Two 58 45 103
5 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 61 43 104
6 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 48 72 120
7 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky Too 59 62 121
8 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 72 66 138
9 Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 93 93 186
10 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 94 94 188
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue 1 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 17 Marcos Rotella '30
Alexander Reynolds '28
University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 2 2 1 1 5 2 1 1 4 1 20 Graham Rebain '29
Matthew Murad '30
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 3 3 3 3 1 3 2 4 3 3 28 Lucas Rodenroth '27
Gavin Parsons '28
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 4 4 5 8 4 4 8 5 2 4 48 Will Turner '28
Jenny Leitz '27
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky Two 5 8 6 4 6 5 4 6 7 7 58 Astrid Myhre '28 [1-10]
Anna Proulx '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Ryland Brechting '30 [5-6, 9-10]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky Too 8 5 4 6 7 6 5 7 5 6 59 Hannah Monville '27
Olivia Klevorn '27
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 7 9 7 7 3 8 6 3 6 5 61 Grace Vanstratt '28
Kirsten Tiedeman '27
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 6 6 9 5 8 7 7 8 8 8 72 Nathaniel Bacheller '28
Leia Miklusicak-Whitney '29
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 9 10 8 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 93 Joshua Wilcox '28
No Show
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 10 7 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 94 Lauren Sorbie '28 [1-10]
Sophia Worden '27 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Cassie Fiore '29 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Blue 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 11 Everett Lehnert '30
Lila Torresen '29
University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 25 John Mccalmont '27
Owen Nofs '29
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One 2 3 2 3 4 6 4 6 4 6 40 Katherine Sorbie '27 [1-4]
Grant Dunfee '30 [5-10]
Lillian Molitor '29 [1-4]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 8 6 4 5 3 4 3 3 3 4 43 Jack Baird '30
Nick Rumsa '28
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky Two 4 2 5 4 6 5 8 4 5 2 45 Alex Cross '28
Alex Burckhardt '29
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University MTU Husky Too 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 62 Cash Bilton '27
Michael Boland '27
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 5 8 8 8 5 2 7 7 8 8 66 Logan Thien '29 [1-8]
Savana Harte '30 [9-10]
Savana Harte '30 [1-8]
Logan Thien '29 [9-10]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 7 5 6 9 8 8 5 10 7 7 72 Anna Rayhorn '27 [1-10]
Zoe Horsch '27 [1-7]
Leo Barch '27 [8-10]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 10 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 9 93 Katelyn Voyles '28
Elijah Marut '28
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 9 10 9 7 10 10 9 9 10 DNS 94 Austin Sjaarda '27 [1-10]
Addison Koss '29 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Sydney Woodard '29 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2025 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers1133557799
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Blue9911335577
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Maize881010224466
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans224466881010
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky One3355779911
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky Too5577991133
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky Two446688101022
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats668810102244
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals7799113355
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos101022446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers224466881010
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Blue101022446688
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Maize9911335577
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans3355779911
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky One446688101022
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky Too668810102244
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University MTU Husky Two5577991133
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats7799113355
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals881010224466
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1133557799

Conditions — 09/05/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From ESE (123°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1018.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · S 5 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan Tech: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.32 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan Tech by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Michigan Tech, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →