ILCA South

HostNavy
Date09/12/2026
TypeFundamental
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Peter Barnard '27	47
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Cole Fanchi '30	48
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Spencer Dominguez '27	76
4	Georgetown University	Peter Herlihy '29	86
5	Georgetown University	Oscar Parzen '30	87
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Owen Fretwell '30	94
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mats Braaten '27	94
8	Old Dominion University	Antonio Barabino '30	96
9	Old Dominion University	Pierce Brindley '28	98
10	Georgetown University	Owen Kohut '29	104
11	U. S. Naval Academy	Robert Richards '29	104
12	U. S. Naval Academy	Teddy Martin '27	109
13	U. S. Naval Academy	Umi Noritake '28	111
14	Old Dominion University	Levente Levay '30	139
15	Old Dominion University	David Karcher '30	142
16	Georgetown University	James Martino '28	184
17	Washington College	Austin Latimer '27	198
18	Washington College	Matthew Nadolny '27	213

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Georgetown University	Peter Barnard '27	6	6	1	3	6	3	1	3	4	9	1	BKD	47
U. S. Naval Academy	Cole Fanchi '30	2	3	7	2	11	2	2	4	2	5	3	5	48
U. S. Naval Academy	Spencer Dominguez '27	1	2	6	4	9	5	4	6	6	10	8	15	76
Georgetown University	Peter Herlihy '29	3	1	11	9	5	11	8	2	10	8	7	11	86
Georgetown University	Oscar Parzen '30	5	5	13	8	2	12	13	9	5	2	12	1	87
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Owen Fretwell '30	4	8	10	10	10	10	6	12	13	1	2	8	94
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mats Braaten '27	14	14	14	1	1	8	10	10	7	3	10	2	94
Old Dominion University	Antonio Barabino '30	7	15	2	14	BKD	6	5	1	3	14	11	10	96
Old Dominion University	Pierce Brindley '28	12	10	5	6	8	14	3	13	12	7	4	4	98
Georgetown University	Owen Kohut '29	9	4	12	7	12	1	11	15	1	11	14	7	104
U. S. Naval Academy	Robert Richards '29	11	13	9	5	13	13	14	5	9	4	5	3	104
U. S. Naval Academy	Teddy Martin '27	8	7	3	12	4	15	9	16	11	6	9	9	109
U. S. Naval Academy	Umi Noritake '28	10	9	8	13	3	9	12	7	8	13	13	6	111
Old Dominion University	Levente Levay '30	15	11	15	15	7	7	7	8	14	12	15	13	139
Old Dominion University	David Karcher '30	13	12	4	11	15	4	16	14	17	16	6	14	142
Georgetown University	James Martino '28	16	17	16	16	16	16	17	11	15	15	17	12	184
Washington College	Austin Latimer '27	17	16	18	18	14	17	15	17	16	17	16	17	198
Washington College	Matthew Nadolny '27	18	18	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	213

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.25); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Cole Fanchi '30	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5	12/12	3.82	4.55	+0.73	94th → 99th	1.9	15%	4.0 / 6.3
2	Peter Barnard '27	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	12/12	4.05	4.63	+0.59	95th → 99th	1.2	40%	5.2 / 5.7
3	Spencer Dominguez '27	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	12/12	2.89	3.41	+0.52	80th → 89th	1.0	15%	6.3 / 8.5
4	Peter Herlihy '29	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	12/12	2.73	3.45	+0.72	74th → 90th	2.1	25%	7.2 / 8.9
5	Oscar Parzen '30	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	12/12	3.28	3.25	−0.03	86th → 85th	0.0	47%	7.2 / 7.5
6	Mats Braaten '27	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	12/12	2.96	2.91	−0.05	81st → 80th	0.0	40%	7.8 / 8.4
6	Owen Fretwell '30	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	12/12	3.41	3.15	−0.26	89th → 84th	0.3	64%	7.8 / 7.2
8	Pierce Brindley '28	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	12/12	2.74	3.09	+0.35	74th → 84th	0.5	38%	8.2 / 8.9
9	Owen Kohut '29	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	12/12	3.27	2.80	−0.47	86th → 77th	1.1	72%	8.7 / 7.6
9	Robert Richards '29	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	12/12	2.40	2.87	+0.48	61st → 79th	0.9	28%	8.7 / 9.9
11	Antonio Barabino '30	Old Dominion University Monarchs 4	12/12	2.90	2.75	−0.16	80th → 74th	0.1	58%	8.9 / 8.5
12	Teddy Martin '27	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	12/12	3.12	2.67	−0.45	84th → 71st	0.9	74%	9.1 / 7.9
13	Umi Noritake '28	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	12/12	2.97	2.87	−0.10	81st → 79th	0.1	70%	9.2 / 8.3
14	Levente Levay '30	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	12/12	1.87	2.01	+0.14	47th → 51st	0.1	57%	11.6 / 11.1
15	David Karcher '30	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	12/12	1.55	1.45	−0.09	38th → 36th	0.0	46%	11.8 / 11.9
16	James Martino '28	Georgetown University Hoyas 5	12/12	0.84	0.41	−0.43	19th → 12th	0.7	83%	15.3 / 13.4
17	Austin Latimer '27	Washington College Shoremen 1	12/12	0.20	-0.28	−0.48	10th → 4th	0.7	90%	16.5 / 14.5
18	Matthew Nadolny '27	Washington College Shoremen 2	12/12	-1.13	-2.48	−1.35	1st → 1st	2.2	95%	17.8 / 16.3

Conditions — 09/12/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

77°F

↑ 80°F ↓ 72°F

Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 9.5 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From SE (128°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1017.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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