Oyster Bowl Women's

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 82
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 95
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 99
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 136
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 139
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 5 1 8 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 24 Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '30
Olivia Creasy '30
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 3 4 7 2 6 4 4 2 4 3 39 Charlotte Cundey '30
Mia Ronen '29
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 9 5 1 7 3 1 3 6 5 5 45 Kaya Hancock '30
Eva Ottenbreit '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 1 9 2 8 10 5 2 4 3 2 46 Abigail Chang '28
Irene Lin '29
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks A 2 2 4 6 4 9 5 3 9 6 50 Lina Carper '27
Isabelle Grimm '29
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 6 3 6 3 7 7 8 5 1 4 50 Jessica Green '29
Haley Kloepfer '29
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 7 6 5 9 2 2 6 8 6 7 58 Galen Nourjian '30
Elfi Van Kuilenburg '29
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 4 7 3 4 5 8 7 7 7 8 60 Emma Walters '30
Jillian Kaufman '30
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks B 10 10 10 5 9 6 10 9 8 9 86 Lillian Rippel '29
Emma Parks '30
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 8 8 9 DNS 8 10 9 10 10 10 93 Audrey Smith '30 [1, 5-7]
Lucy Fleckenstein '30 [2-4, 8-10]
Lucy Fleckenstein '30 [1, 5-7]
Audrey Smith '30 [2-4, 8-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams2222222222
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas3333333333
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen5555555555
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers6666666666
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks4444444444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams20202020202020202020
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas21212121212121212121
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen23232323232323232323
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers24242424242424242424
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks22222222222222222222

Conditions — 10/10/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1028.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.9 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1028.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →