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Princeton Fall Open

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 5 7 12
2 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 14 14 28
3 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 22 16 38
4 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 20 19 39
5 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 22 24 46
6 University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 22 25 47
7 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 40 40 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 1 1 1 1 5 Nicole Ostapowicz '28
Amelia Tebbens '29
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 2 4 3 2 14 Zachary Meisel '27 [1-5]
Martha Balson '29 [1-4]
Leonardo Bene '28 [5]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 6 3 3 2 6 20 John Anthony Caraig '27
Zerima King '28
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 2 5 5 5 5 22
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 4 4 6 4 4 22 Julia Marich '28 [1-5]
Veronica Barden '30 [1-2]
Evan Groiss '29 [3-4]
Hannah Reid '29 [5]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 5 6 2 6 3 22 Collin Dubravetz '28 [1-5]
Kennedy Hinkle '30 [1-2, 5]
Linnea Taube '30 [3-4]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 40
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 2 1 1 1 7 Desmond White '30
Bogdan Bogurskiy '30
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 1 6 2 4 14 Lakshya Jain '28
Sage Shah '29
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 3 4 3 4 2 16 John Bailey '28 [1-5]
Lily Mcmahon '30 [1-2]
Rylee Williams '29 [3-5]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 5 6 2 3 3 19 Christian Aron '27
Emma Mcalarney '29
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 5 4 5 6 24 Otto Slade '27
Gia Ho '27
University of Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Panthers 6 3 5 6 5 25
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 40
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals11335
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks22446
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers55772
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions33557
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers77224
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers44661
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange66113

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals22446
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks33557
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers66113
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions44661
University of PittsburghUniversity of Pittsburgh Panthers11335
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers55772
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange77224

Conditions — 10/10/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 10.3 kn
From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1030.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Princeton: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →