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MCSA Women's Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 21 9 30
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 13 20 33
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 34 19 53
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 25 28 53
5 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 22 43 65
6 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommie 33 32 65
7 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 48 45 93
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 4 4 1 1 13 Christine Porter '11
Molly Forbes '12
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 5 3 2 2 3 4 21
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 5 4 2 3 1 2 5 22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 2 6 1 5 5 2 25 Allison Gullquist '13
Olivia Green '11
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommie 6 3 4 5 6 6 3 33 Ann Owen '12
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 3 6 5 7 3 4 6 34 Allison Prange '11
Emma Gantzer '11
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 48 Anna Scott '11
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 9 Rachel Barch '13
Britt Wedenoja '11
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 2 2 3 1 3 5 3 19 Natalie Sinn '12
Kirstin Wilson '12
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 3 4 2 2 3 2 20 Mary Cummins '11
Margaux Stutz '11
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 4 5 4 4 2 4 28 Sarah Hughes '11
Carolyn Fallert '12
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommie 3 5 2 5 5 6 6 32 Ann Owen '12
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 43 Lizzie Kunze '13
Molly Condon '12
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 6 7 7 7 7 4 7 45
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons55779911
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini668810105
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines779911116
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Minnesota Women881010557
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats991111668
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommie101055779
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1111668810

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons6688101011
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini779911115
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines881010556
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Minnesota Women991111667
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats101055778
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommie111166889
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers55779910

Conditions — 04/24/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1001.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 27.4 kn
From SE (138°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.8 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1001.0 hPa Rain0.12 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn · N 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Illinois: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.27
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.50 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Illinois by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Illinois, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →