Navigate

Wellesley Tech Inv.

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 21 21
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 25 25
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 25 25
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 26 26
5 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 1 41 41
6 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 51 51
7 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 56 56
8 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 57 57
9 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 74 74
10 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 80 80
11 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 2 86 86
12 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 87 87
13 Terriers Terriers Terriers 136 136
14 Terriers! Terriers! Terriers! 136 136
15 Judges 1 Judges 1 Judges 1 136 136
16 Judges 2 Judges 2 Judges 2 136 136
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 1 1 1 3 3 7 3 2 21 Alexander Jahncke '10
Laura Liddell '12
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 4 8 4 3 1 1 25 Meghan Pesch '11
Alyson Yee '12
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 3 3 2 2 1 5 5 4 25 Owen Richardson '10
Erica Siepman '10
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 6 7 3 1 2 2 2 3 26 Matthew Russell '13
Midori Tanaka '12
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 1 4 8 5 4 9 1 4 6 41 Keaton Burns '12
Susannah Sanford '10
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 7 4 9 6 6 8 6 5 51 Anna Morton '13
Hannah Gross '13
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 12 5 8 5 5 6 8 7 56 Whit Durant '12
Rachel Pisa '12
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 5 6 6 7 12 4 7 10 57 Scott Zolkos '11
Anna Hopper '14
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 11 10 7 9 8 9 9 11 74 James Conkling '11
Asa Phillips '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildkittens 9 11 10 10 7 12 12 9 80 William Trumper '11
Molly Hermann '12
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 2 10 9 11 12 11 11 10 12 86 Elizabeth Braunstein '11
Emilija Schreck '13
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 8 12 OCS 11 10 10 11 8 87 Jeff Croteau '10
Zach Breed '13
Terriers Terriers Terriers DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 136
Terriers! Terriers! Terriers! DSQ DSQ DSQ DNS DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 136
Judges 1 Judges 1 Judges 1 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 136
Judges 2 Judges 2 Judges 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 136
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs 111223344
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs 2221116161515
TerriersTerriers Terriers33445566
Terriers!Terriers! Terriers!44332211
Judges 1Judges 1 Judges 155667788
Judges 2Judges 2 Judges 266554433
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 17788991010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 288776655
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats99101011111212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildkittens1010998877
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya1111121213131414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo12121111101099
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1313141415151616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University1414131312121111
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 1151516161122
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 21616151514141313

Conditions — 04/25/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1004.0 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From SW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine8.6 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1004.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →