Harris Kempner Memorial 2011

HostTexas A&M Galveston
Date02/12/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 4	40	32	72
2	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	50	23	73
3	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 6	75	22	97
4	Tulane University	Green Wave	48	54	102
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	73	54	127
6	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 3	40	108	148
7	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 8	64	91	155
8	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 5	83	74	157
9	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 7	90	76	166
10	University of Texas	Longhorns	78	90	168
11	Aggies 1	Aggies 1	72	117	189
12	Baylor University	Bears	119	86	205
13	Aggies 3	Aggies 3	95	131	226
14	Aggies 2	Aggies 2	126	118	244

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 4	3	5	1	6	3	8	2	1	2	9	40	Laura Stamets '12 Daniel Dalgleish '11
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 3	7	3	5	4	2	5	4	2	1	7	40	Collin Weston '13 Leslie Holt '12
Tulane University	Green Wave	4	1	7	3	1	DSQ	3	4	6	4	48	Andrew Eyring '07 [1-10] Margo Lalumiere '13 [1-2, 7-8] Lauren Cargo '14 [3-6, 9-10]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	2	4	14	1	7	3	5	3	8	3	50	Alfred Robbins '12 Megan Chan Chow '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 8	8	14	2	9	4	9	1	6	10	1	64	Rebekka Urbina '12 Michael Sager '14
Aggies 1	Aggies 1	1	8	3	5	10	4	10	13	4	14	72
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	5	6	6	2	8	DSQ	6	8	7	10	73	Jonathan Atwood '12 [1-10] Jasmine Baloch '13 [1-6] Rachel Blount '14 [7-10]
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 6	9	11	8	8	9	2	13	10	3	2	75	Benjamin Kennady '13 Edgar Alvarez '14
University of Texas	Longhorns	13	2	9	12	5	7	9	5	11	5	78	Caitlynn Taylor '11 Matt Lenz '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 5	11	10	4	7	6	10	11	11	5	8	83	Nicholas Chong '13 Sara Rogers '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 7	10	7	10	10	11	1	8	12	9	12	90	Stuart Conrad '13 Irene Villavicencio '14
Aggies 3	Aggies 3	6	12	11	14	12	6	7	7	14	6	95
Baylor University	Bears	14	9	13	13	14	11	12	9	13	11	119	Patrick Campbell '12 Jessica Sellers '13
Aggies 2	Aggies 2	12	13	12	11	13	12	14	14	12	13	126

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 6	1	6	1	1	2	4	1	1	3	RDG	22	Coleman Terrell '14 Dean Bethel '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 1	2	2	2	5	3	1	2	2	2	2	23	Christopher Foster '14 Ava Kovach '12
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 4	3	1	9	2	1	8	3	3	1	1	32	Ryan Carden '12 Emily Cox '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 2	4	4	3	4	6	11	6	5	6	5	54	Nicholas Kirk '14 Brittney Crawford '14
Tulane University	Green Wave	DNF	3	4	3	5	6	4	6	5	3	54	Mary Duncan '11 Lee Evans '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 5	8	8	10	8	4	10	5	7	4	10	74	Austin Moon '12 Sara Million '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 7	10	9	5	12	9	3	8	4	10	6	76	Jessica Malone '12 Victoria Zambrano '14
Baylor University	Bears	5	12	14	9	11	2	7	9	9	8	86	Anthony Tran '11 Javier Vargas '14
University of Texas	Longhorns	12	11	13	6	8	5	11	8	7	9	90	Richard Cathriner '14 Erica Lassen '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 8	7	14	8	13	7	7	10	10	8	7	91	Morgan Smith '17 Austin Bergman '12
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies 3	9	13	11	14	10	9	9	11	11	11	108	Aly Gazzola '14 Paige Meineke '14
Aggies 1	Aggies 1	6	7	6	11	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	12	DNS	DNS	117
Aggies 2	Aggies 2	11	5	7	7	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	13	DNS	DNS	118
Aggies 3	Aggies 3	13	10	12	10	DSQ	DSQ	12	14	DNS	DNS	131

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (26 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Baylor University Bears	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
University of Texas Longhorns	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Aggies 1 Aggies 1	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Aggies 2 Aggies 2	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Aggies 3 Aggies 3	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 5	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 7	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 8	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6
Tulane University Green Wave	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Baylor University Bears	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
University of Texas Longhorns	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Aggies 1 Aggies 1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Aggies 2 Aggies 2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Aggies 3 Aggies 3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 3	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 4	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 5	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 6	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 7	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 8	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Tulane University Green Wave	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Baylor University	Patrick Campbell '12	Jessica Sellers '13
Bears	Anthony Tran '11	Javier Vargas '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Alfred Robbins '12	Megan Chan Chow '13
Aggies 1	Christopher Foster '14	Ava Kovach '12
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Jonathan Atwood '12 [1-10]	Jasmine Baloch '13 [1-6] Rachel Blount '14 [7-10]
Aggies 2	Nicholas Kirk '14	Brittney Crawford '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Collin Weston '13	Leslie Holt '12
Aggies 3	Aly Gazzola '14	Paige Meineke '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Laura Stamets '12	Daniel Dalgleish '11
Aggies 4	Ryan Carden '12	Emily Cox '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Nicholas Chong '13	Sara Rogers '14
Aggies 5	Austin Moon '12	Sara Million '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Benjamin Kennady '13	Edgar Alvarez '14
Aggies 6	Coleman Terrell '14	Dean Bethel '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Stuart Conrad '13	Irene Villavicencio '14
Aggies 7	Jessica Malone '12	Victoria Zambrano '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Rebekka Urbina '12	Michael Sager '14
Aggies 8	Morgan Smith '17	Austin Bergman '12
Tulane University	Andrew Eyring '07 [1-10]	Margo Lalumiere '13 [1-2, 7-8] Lauren Cargo '14 [3-6, 9-10]
Green Wave	Mary Duncan '11	Lee Evans '13
University of Texas	Caitlynn Taylor '11	Matt Lenz '13
Longhorns	Richard Cathriner '14	Erica Lassen '14

Conditions — 02/12/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1032.4 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.4 kn

avg · max 4.5 kn

Gusts to 9.3 kn

From W (261°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1032.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn · SW 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Texas A&M Galveston: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled days at Texas A&M Galveston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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