Nelson Roltsch

HostTulane
Date03/05/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Gators	Gators	31	15	46
2	Green Wave	Green Wave	23	32	55
3	Aggies	Aggies	27	31	58
4	Auburn	Auburn	38	32	70
5	Longhorns	Longhorns	47	26	73
6	Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech	33	54	87
7	Aggies 1	Aggies 1	44	57	101
8	Aggies 2	Aggies 2	67	57	124
9	Florida Tech	Florida Tech	72	67	139
10	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	85	100	185
11	Southern Methodist	Southern Methodist	90	100	190
12	Purdue	Purdue	104	104	208

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT
Green Wave	Green Wave	2	2	1	4	4	1	7	2	23
Aggies	Aggies	1	1	2	1	OCS	3	2	4	27
Gators	Gators	5	5	4	3	2	5	1	6	31
Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech	6	6	3	6	5	2	4	1	33
Auburn	Auburn	7	7	6	2	3	7	3	3	38
Aggies 1	Aggies 1	3	3	7	7	1	4	6	OCS	44
Longhorns	Longhorns	4	4	8	5	7	9	5	5	47
Aggies 2	Aggies 2	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	7	67
Florida Tech	Florida Tech	8	8	10	10	9	10	9	8	72
Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	10	10	5	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	85
Southern Methodist	Southern Methodist	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	6	6	DNS	DNS	90
Purdue	Purdue	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	104

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT
Gators	Gators	1	1	3	2	1	4	2	1	15
Longhorns	Longhorns	4	2	4	4	2	1	4	5	26
Aggies	Aggies	3	3	2	6	3	5	3	6	31
Auburn	Auburn	2	6	1	1	4	3	OCS	2	32
Green Wave	Green Wave	5	4	5	3	5	2	1	7	32
Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech	6	5	6	5	9	6	DNF	4	54
Aggies 2	Aggies 2	7	8	7	7	7	7	6	8	57
Aggies 1	Aggies 1	BKD	7	8	DNS	6	8	5	3	57
Florida Tech	Florida Tech	8	9	9	8	8	9	7	9	67
Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	9	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	100
Southern Methodist	Southern Methodist	DNF	DNS	DNS	9	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	100
Purdue	Purdue	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	104

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Auburn Auburn	1	1	3	3	5	5	9	9
Gators Gators	3	3	5	5	9	9	11	11
Florida Tech Florida Tech	2	2	4	4	6	6	10	10
Georgia Tech Georgia Tech	4	4	6	6	10	10	12	12
Oklahoma State Oklahoma State	5	5	9	9	11	11	13	13
Purdue Purdue	6	6	10	10	12	12	14	14
Southern Methodist Southern Methodist	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1
Longhorns Longhorns	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6
Aggies 1 Aggies 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2
Aggies 2 Aggies 2	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3
Aggies Aggies	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4
Green Wave Green Wave	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Auburn Auburn	2	2	4	4	6	6	10	10
Gators Gators	4	6	10	10	12	12	14	14
Florida Tech Florida Tech	3	3	5	5	9	9	11	11
Georgia Tech Georgia Tech	5	5	9	9	11	11	13	13
Oklahoma State Oklahoma State	6	4	6	6	10	10	12	12
Purdue Purdue	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1
Southern Methodist Southern Methodist	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2
Longhorns Longhorns	1	1	3	3	5	5	9	9
Aggies 1 Aggies 1	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3
Aggies 2 Aggies 2	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4
Aggies Aggies	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5
Green Wave Green Wave	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6

Conditions — 03/05/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain

Humidity 97% · Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.7 kn

avg · max 13.5 kn

Gusts to 29.7 kn

From SSW (193°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity97% Pressure1013.6 hPa Rain1.74 in

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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