Central Spring Qualifier

HostPrinceton
Date03/31/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Princeton University	Tigers	38	40	78
2	Stevens Institute of Technology	Stevens	29	53	82
3	Villanova University	Wildcats	41	49	90
4	Ocean County College	Vikings	77	28	105
5	Monmouth University	Monmouth	40	65	105
6	Kean University	Kean	75	50	125
7	Drexel University	Dragons	65	71	136
8	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	81	98	179
9	Rutgers University	Rutgers	96	87	183

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology	Stevens	1	2	2	3	2	3	5	2	2	1	5	1	29	Gerard Tonachel '13 Matthew Guenther '14
Princeton University	Tigers	4	4	1	6	3	5	1	5	4	2	1	2	38	Samantha Gebb '14 [1-12] Paige Tsai '13 [1-4] Elizabeth Smith '14 [5-8] Samantha Zeluck '13 [9-12]
Monmouth University	Monmouth	5	3	3	1	6	2	2	3	1	4	4	6	40	Paul Stevens '14 Brogan Savage '15
Villanova University	Wildcats	7	1	5	2	4	1	3	1	3	5	6	3	41	Domenic Re '15 Scott Barnhill '14
Drexel University	Dragons	8	8	9	8	1	4	7	4	5	3	3	5	65	Joan Boyle '14 Tracy Venella '16
Kean University	Kean	2	5	7	9	7	7	8	6	7	8	2	7	75	Brenden Hogan '12 Sarah Salter '12
Ocean County College	Vikings	3	DSQ	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	7	8	9	77	Dean S. '15 [1-8] Nicholas Rinaldi '14 [9-10] Jennifer Kempton '13 [11-12] Jennifer Kempton '13 [1-10] Kyle Johnstone '13 [11-12]
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	OCS	6	6	5	8	9	4	8	6	6	9	4	81	Rachel Bennung '12 Eliza Crawford '14
Rutgers University	Rutgers	6	7	8	7	9	8	9	9	9	9	7	8	96	Laine Meelheim '13 Nicholas Salandra '14

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Ocean County College	Vikings	4	4	4	4	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	28	Zachary Schippe '14 Andrew Daponte '14
Princeton University	Tigers	2	2	1	3	5	6	7	3	5	2	2	2	40	John Marzulli '12 [1-12] Mary Bartlett '12 [1-4] Ashley Barclift '14 [5-6] Paige Tsai '13 [7-12]
Villanova University	Wildcats	3	6	2	2	3	3	4	8	1	9	3	5	49	Andrew Sayre '12 [1-8] Sarah Celone '13 [9-12] Marisa Demourkas '12 [1-8]
Kean University	Kean	5	1	6	1	1	1	2	1	9	6	9	8	50	Tyler Kennedy '12 [1-8] Emily Mccarthy '13 [9-12] Jamie Lee Wasco '12 [1-8] Kristin Kilar '12 [9-12]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Stevens	1	DSQ	3	6	4	4	3	5	4	4	6	3	53	Christian Geary '14 [1-12] Kyle Ripley '13 [1-8] Lara Paul '15 [9-12]
Monmouth University	Monmouth	7	3	9	8	6	5	6	4	6	3	4	4	65	Christopher Lojek '14 Rachel Armstrong '14
Drexel University	Dragons	6	5	5	5	7	8	5	7	3	5	8	7	71	Jason Sinclair '13 Robert Stricek '15
Rutgers University	Rutgers	9	7	8	7	8	7	8	6	7	7	7	6	87	Tim Gorzelnik '14 Marissa Nelson '14
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	8	8	7	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	5	9	98	Charles Herlihy '14 [1-12] Timothy Hersh '15 [1-6, 9-12] Mackenzie Nelson '15 [7-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Drexel University Dragons	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Kean University Kean	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Monmouth University Monmouth	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Ocean County College Vikings	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Penn State University Nittany Lions	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	1	1	2	2
Princeton University Tigers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	1	1
Rutgers University Rutgers	7	7	8	8	9	9	1	1	2	2	3	3
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens	8	8	9	9	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Villanova University Wildcats	9	9	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Drexel University Dragons	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Kean University Kean	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Monmouth University Monmouth	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Ocean County College Vikings	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Penn State University Nittany Lions	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	1	1	2	2
Princeton University Tigers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	1	1
Rutgers University Rutgers	7	7	8	8	9	9	1	1	2	2	3	3
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens	8	8	9	9	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Villanova University Wildcats	9	9	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Drexel University	Joan Boyle '14	Tracy Venella '16
Dragons	Jason Sinclair '13	Robert Stricek '15
Kean University	Brenden Hogan '12	Sarah Salter '12
Kean	Tyler Kennedy '12 [1-8] Emily Mccarthy '13 [9-12]	Jamie Lee Wasco '12 [1-8] Kristin Kilar '12 [9-12]
Monmouth University	Paul Stevens '14	Brogan Savage '15
Monmouth	Christopher Lojek '14	Rachel Armstrong '14
Ocean County College	Dean S. '15 [1-8] Nicholas Rinaldi '14 [9-10] Jennifer Kempton '13 [11-12]	Jennifer Kempton '13 [1-10] Kyle Johnstone '13 [11-12]
Vikings	Zachary Schippe '14	Andrew Daponte '14
Penn State University	Rachel Bennung '12	Eliza Crawford '14
Nittany Lions	Charles Herlihy '14 [1-12]	Timothy Hersh '15 [1-6, 9-12] Mackenzie Nelson '15 [7-8]
Princeton University	Samantha Gebb '14 [1-12]	Paige Tsai '13 [1-4] Elizabeth Smith '14 [5-8] Samantha Zeluck '13 [9-12]
Tigers	John Marzulli '12 [1-12]	Mary Bartlett '12 [1-4] Ashley Barclift '14 [5-6] Paige Tsai '13 [7-12]
Rutgers University	Laine Meelheim '13	Nicholas Salandra '14
Rutgers	Tim Gorzelnik '14	Marissa Nelson '14
Stevens Institute of Technology	Gerard Tonachel '13	Matthew Guenther '14
Stevens	Christian Geary '14 [1-12]	Kyle Ripley '13 [1-8] Lara Paul '15 [9-12]
Villanova University	Domenic Re '15	Scott Barnhill '14
Wildcats	Andrew Sayre '12 [1-8] Sarah Celone '13 [9-12]	Marisa Demourkas '12 [1-8]

Conditions — 03/31/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 90% · Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 44°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.4 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 20.6 kn

From NE (51°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1011.5 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn · SW 6 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Princeton: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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