MAISA South qualifier

HostHampton
Date03/30/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Quakers	Quakers	33	38	71
2	Colonials	Colonials	36	42	78
3	Captains	Captains	49	35	84
4	Wahoos	Wahoos	53	32	85
5	Monmouth	Monmouth	61	72	133
6	Tribe	Tribe	89	59	148
7	Pirates	Pirates	65	110	175
8	Terps	Terps	49	128	177
9	Lions	Lions	124	72	196
10	Wildcats	Wildcats	91	112	203
11	Vikings	Vikings	126	97	223
12	Seagulls	Seagulls	154 MRP	129 MRP	283 MRP
13	Retrievers	Retrievers	148	137	285
14	Johnnies	Johnnies	144	151	295
15	Seawolves	Seawolves	154	141	295
16	Hokies	Hokies	144	158	302

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT
Quakers	Quakers	3	1	7	2	1	3	2	2	7	4	1	33
Colonials	Colonials	2	3	3	3	9	1	3	1	2	3	6	36
Terps	Terps	1	4	2	6	4	7	6	3	8	1	7	49
Captains	Captains	7	5	1	1	2	RDG	1	8	1	2	DSQ	49
Wahoos	Wahoos	6	7	5	5	8	2	4	4	5	5	2	53
Monmouth	Monmouth	5	2	8	7	3	6	5	5	9	6	5	61
Pirates	Pirates	4	6	4	4	5	10	8	10	4	7	3	65
Tribe	Tribe	9	8	6	8	13	9	9	9	6	8	4	89
Wildcats	Wildcats	10	9	9	DSQ	6	5	7	6	3	9	10	91
Lions	Lions	16	12	10	9	16	8	10	12	10	10	11	124
Vikings	Vikings	8	11	11	DSQ	7	16	12	7	15	14	8	126
Johnnies	Johnnies	11	16	15	11	11	12	16	16	12	12	12	144
Hokies	Hokies	13	15	12	13	10	15	14	11	16	16	9	144
Retrievers	Retrievers	15	13	14	14	15	13	11	14	13	11	15	148
Seawolves	Seawolves	12	14	16	12	14	14	15	15	14	15	13	154
Seagulls	Seagulls	14	10	13	10	12	11	13	13	11	13	14	154 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT
Wahoos	Wahoos	3	8	1	3	5	3	4	1	1	2	1	32
Captains	Captains	1	3	4	1	3	2	2	4	6	5	4	35
Quakers	Quakers	2	1	OCS	4	2	1	3	3	2	1	2	38
Colonials	Colonials	6	2	3	9	1	5	1	2	3	4	6	42
Tribe	Tribe	4	12	2	6	4	4	8	6	5	3	5	59
Monmouth	Monmouth	5	6	OCS	5	6	8	7	5	4	6	3	72
Lions	Lions	8	5	5	2	7	6	5	8	7	11	8	72
Vikings	Vikings	13	4	6	7	11	9	10	9	9	9	10	97
Pirates	Pirates	7	13	9	8	15	11	9	13	8	8	9	110
Wildcats	Wildcats	11	15	8	10	9	15	6	11	10	7	BKD	112
Terps	Terps	14	7	10	14	12	7	13	15	12	13	11	128
Seagulls	Seagulls	10	11	11	11	8	10	11	7	13	10	7	129 MRP
Retrievers	Retrievers	12	14	12	13	10	13	14	14	11	12	12	137
Seawolves	Seawolves	9	10	7	12	13	12	16	16	15	16	15	141
Johnnies	Johnnies	15	9	14	16	14	16	12	12	16	14	13	151
Hokies	Hokies	16	16	13	15	16	14	15	10	14	15	14	158

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Captains Captains	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Lions Lions	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Colonials Colonials	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Pirates Pirates	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Terps Terps	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Retrievers Retrievers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Monmouth Monmouth	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
Vikings Vikings	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
Quakers Quakers	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6
Seagulls Seagulls	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
Johnnies Johnnies	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
Seawolves Seawolves	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
Wildcats Wildcats	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Wahoos Wahoos	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Hokies Hokies	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Tribe Tribe	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Captains Captains	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Lions Lions	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Colonials Colonials	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Pirates Pirates	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Terps Terps	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
Retrievers Retrievers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Monmouth Monmouth	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
Vikings Vikings	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
Quakers Quakers	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Seagulls Seagulls	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6
Johnnies Johnnies	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
Seawolves Seawolves	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
Wildcats Wildcats	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Wahoos Wahoos	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Hokies Hokies	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Tribe Tribe	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11

Conditions — 03/30/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.4 kn

avg · max 6.0 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From NW (315°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1022.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Hampton — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hampton in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled fleet-race days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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