SAISA South Points #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 10 9 19
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 13 9 22
3 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 13 10 23
4 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 9 23 32
5 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 18 16 34
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 20 29 49
7 Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 27 25 52
8 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 31 27 58
9 New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 31 30 61
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 2 2 1 4 9 Giancarlo Falconi '16
Nick Gangemi '16
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 4 2 3 10 Roy Ingham '15
Benjamin Tino '16
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 3 1 3 6 13 Jacqueline Taylor '15
Casey Layne '16
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 5 3 4 1 13 Seth Barrows '15
Morgan Engle '15
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 4 5 7 2 18 Blake Pierce '14
Bernardo Pineda '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls BYE BYE 5 5 20 Thomas Hamby '15
Tekla Mayotte '16
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 6 8 6 7 27 Travis White '16
Robert Henderson '14
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 7 6 8 DNF 31 Angela Skane '16
Megan Touton '15
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 8 7 BYE BYE 31 Michael Long '14 [1-4]
Forrester White '15 [1-3]
Christina Bruce '16 [4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 5 1 2 9 Bradford Cederberg '15
Heidi Carlson '16
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 2 1 2 4 9 Daniel Moore '12
Matthew Martin '16
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 4 2 3 1 10 Joel Hurley '14
Trevor Johnson '16
Rollins College Rollins College Tars BYE BYE 5 3 16 Mitchell Wilkins '14
Michelle Assaly '14
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 8 3 BYE BYE 23 Kevin Schwarm '16
Eva Muszynski '16
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 5 6 4 DNF 25 Meghan Peltier '16
Janelle Dargham '16
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 3 4 DNF DNS 27 Allison Gray '13 [1-4]
Naomi Rivas '13 [1-2]
Amy Rumbaugh '15 [3-4]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6 7 6 DNF 29 Patricia Calvo Jaschke '15
Niccole Miller '16
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 7 8 DNF 5 30 Calvin Troutt '15
Benjamin Whitehead '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1133
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles2244
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators3355
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State4466
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins5577
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes6688
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College7799
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars8811
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls9922

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons2244
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles3355
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators4466
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State5577
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins6688
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes7799
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College8811
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars9922
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1133

Conditions — 03/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 38%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 16.0 kn
Gusts to 33.4 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1016.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rollins: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →