Qualifier 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 6 7 13
2 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 18 7 25
3 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 20 10 30
4 Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 12 21 33
5 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 17 22 39
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 17 22 39
7 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 22 23 45
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 2 1 1 2 6 Michael Sager '15
Skylar Smith '17
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 4 5 2 1 12 Sam Webb '14
Zachariah Duck '15
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 3 6 4 4 17 Travis Conger '14
Tracy Hawk '16
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 5 2 7 3 17 Ellen Nielsen '15 [1-4]
Nicola Looney '15 [1-2]
Kayla Blanchard '13 [3-4]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 6 4 3 5 18 Kayla Sjoberg '14
Rachel Mcmahon '15
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 1 7 5 7 20 Megan Woodring '14
Christine Sicktich '15
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 7 3 6 6 22 Alexander Judd '16 [1-4]
Brinley Kranz '16 [1-2]
Garrett Callahan '15 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 1 1 3 2 7 Trey Hartman '15
Sara Stafford '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 2 2 2 1 7 Jacob Hafemeister '16
Ryan Murphy '15
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2 3 3 1 3 10 Erin Hawk '16
Ataly Asher '15
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 7 6 4 4 21 John Tobola '17
Kathryn Rykard '15
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 4 7 6 5 22 Mark Varga '15
Hunter Ledonne '15
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 1 5 5 5 7 22 Walter Pospick '17 [1-4]
Sarah Turner '15 [1-2]
Morgan Frakes '17 [3-4]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 6 4 7 6 23 Simon Varga '17 [1-4]
Thomas Settle '15 [1-2]
Aubrey Leblanc '14 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (34 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys1122
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 16677
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 27711
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 12233
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 23344
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 14455
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 25566

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys1122
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 16677
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 27711
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 12233
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies 23344
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 14455
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 25566

Conditions — 01/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 29°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 12.1 kn
From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1021.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Texas: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.55 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at Texas).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →