South Spring Qualifier

HostHampton
Date04/12/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Wahoos	Wahoos	42	23	65
2	Shoremen	Shoremen	22	47	69
3	Colonials	Colonials	56	29	85
4	Pirates	Pirates	62	42	104
5	Captains	Captains	56	62	118
6	Wildcats	Wildcats	88	55	143
7	Dragons	Dragons	67	96	163
8	Tribe	Tribe	89	78	167
9	Terps	Terps	68	104	172
10	Hokies	Hokies	78	118	196
11	Vikings	Vikings	117	92	209
12	Tigers	Tigers	128	126	254

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT
Shoremen	Shoremen	3	2	1	4	2	3	2	1	1	2	1	22
Wahoos	Wahoos	6	3	3	1	5	2	3	DSQ	3	1	2	42
Colonials	Colonials	1	5	10	3	1	6	6	DSQ	2	6	3	56
Captains	Captains	2	4	6	8	8	1	4	9	7	3	4	56
Pirates	Pirates	8	10	4	10	4	5	1	4	5	5	6	62
Dragons	Dragons	7	7	5	6	3	7	8	2	10	4	8	67
Terps	Terps	5	1	8	7	9	9	5	8	4	7	5	68
Hokies	Hokies	4	9	9	9	6	4	9	7	6	8	7	78
Wildcats	Wildcats	10	8	2	5	10	11	7	3	8	12	12	88
Tribe	Tribe	9	6	7	2	7	8	11	10	9	9	11	89
Vikings	Vikings	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	11	11	10	10	117
Tigers	Tigers	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	9	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT
Wahoos	Wahoos	1	3	1	3	2	1	2	3	2	4	1	23
Colonials	Colonials	2	1	2	5	4	3	4	2	1	3	2	29
Pirates	Pirates	5	4	3	2	1	2	3	4	5	7	6	42
Shoremen	Shoremen	3	6	6	4	5	7	1	6	4	2	3	47
Wildcats	Wildcats	4	2	4	6	7	5	5	5	6	6	5	55
Captains	Captains	10	9	OCS	1	3	4	6	1	7	1	7	62
Tribe	Tribe	9	8	7	8	6	6	9	RAF	3	5	4	78
Vikings	Vikings	8	7	8	10	10	8	8	9	8	8	8	92
Dragons	Dragons	7	5	9	12	8	9	7	7	11	11	10	96
Terps	Terps	6	10	10	9	9	10	11	11	9	10	9	104
Hokies	Hokies	11	11	11	7	12	11	10	10	12	12	11	118
Tigers	Tigers	12	12	12	11	11	12	12	DNS	10	9	12	126

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Captains Captains	2	2	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6
Dragons Dragons	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Colonials Colonials	4	4	2	2	14	14	12	12	10	10	8
Pirates Pirates	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1
Terps Terps	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	14	14	12
Vikings Vikings	6	6	4	4	2	2	14	14	12	12	10
Tigers Tigers	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	1	1	3
Wildcats Wildcats	11	11	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Wahoos Wahoos	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	14
Hokies Hokies	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2
Shoremen Shoremen	13	13	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Tribe Tribe	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Captains Captains	1	1	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5
Dragons Dragons	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Colonials Colonials	3	3	1	1	13	13	11	11	9	9	7
Pirates Pirates	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2
Terps Terps	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	13	13	11
Vikings Vikings	5	5	3	3	1	1	13	13	11	11	9
Tigers Tigers	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	2	2	4
Wildcats Wildcats	12	12	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Wahoos Wahoos	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	13
Hokies Hokies	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1
Shoremen Shoremen	14	14	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Tribe Tribe	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3

Conditions — 04/12/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 59°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.0 kn

avg · max 9.3 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From ENE (60°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1023.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Hampton — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hampton in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled fleet-race days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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