2016 SailPack Oriental Intercollegiate

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 58
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 62
3 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 79
4 Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 114
5 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 118
6 University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 1 1 1 1 1 5 4 14 Kara Wheeler '18 [1-4]
Jacqueline Welles '17 [5-7]
Jacqueline Welles '17 [1-4]
Kara Wheeler '18 [5-6]
Travis Tucker '20 [7]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror A 2 3 3 2 4 4 1 19 Andrew Edwards '18
Mckenna Marquart '18
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange A 4 2 2 4 2 3 2 19 Henry Sanders '18
Barrie Joanna '19
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror B 7 10 6 3 5 2 6 39 Elijah Jones '18
Adam Augustine '19
University of Florida University of Florida Gators A 3 8 4 6 8 6 9 44 Paul Talty '19
Nicole Sieling '19
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets A 9 6 5 5 7 1 DNS 46 Henri Smulders '19
Katherine Kwasniak '19
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 6 7 7 7 9 9 3 48 Zack Morey '17
Katherine Richardson '19
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs B 10 5 8 10 10 10 5 58 Erica Trotter '17 [1-7]
Paige Bihary '18 [1-3]
Benjamin Tonks '19 [4-7]
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs A 5 4 9 11 11 12 8 60 Timothy Dewitt '17 [1-7]
Jennifer Cahalan '19 [1-3]
Andrea Funk '17 [4-7]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange B 8 9 10 12 6 8 7 60 Alberto Rivera '16
Daniel Piccininni '17
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets B 11 11 11 8 3 11 DNS 68 David Sutton '19 [1-7]
Martine Montgomery '19 [1-3]
David Schnelle '18 [4-7]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators B 12 12 12 9 12 7 10 74 Sarah Alfes '18
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators4433221
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs5566778
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets1122334
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror6655443
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack2211121211
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange3344556

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators101099887
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs11111212112
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets77889910
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror1212111110109
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack8877665
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange991010111112

Conditions — 03/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SSE (147°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.30
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.41 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →