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Freshman Icebreaker

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 16 20 36
2 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 27 26 53
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 41 34 75
4 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 27 50 77
5 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 65 55 120
6 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 77 47 124
7 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 80 53 133
8 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 50 87 137
9 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 69 93 162
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 16 Alexandra Anderson '16
Amy Baer '19
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 4 2 3 4 3 1 3 2 4 27 Rachel Rantanen '19 [1-10]
Robin Daniels '19 [1, 5-10]
Erin Mattucci '19 [2]
Emma Hughes '19 [3]
Aleks Oslapas '19 [4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 5 3 4 1 3 2 2 2 4 1 27 Colleen Wiechart '19
Molly Lafave '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 2 3 4 2 4 5 5 6 7 41 Nathan Kane '19
Vincent Wyborski '17
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 4 5 5 5 5 8 4 4 5 5 50 John Lowry '19
Alyan Memon '19
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 7 9 7 8 8 7 8 6 3 2 65 Jacob Pledger '18 [1-8]
Libby Reeg '17 [9-10]
Lisette Boer '19 [1-8]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 8 8 6 6 7 5 7 8 8 6 69 Jack Rodman '19 [1-10]
Mary Woods '19 [1-2]
Noah Porschart '18 [3-10]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 9 6 8 7 9 9 6 7 7 9 77 Jillian Vogley '19
Joshua Spano '21
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 6 7 9 DNF 6 6 DNF 9 9 8 80 Jacob Hoyt '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Preston Kuppe '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Kelly Heiniger '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Maria Kunath '19 [3-4, 7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 5 1 20 Sonny Jenema '19
Michael Gapuz '18
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 7 2 1 7 26 Kevin Kinneally '19 [1-6]
Harriet Fink '20 [7-10]
Harriet Fink '20 [1-6]
Cecilia Costa '18 [7-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 4 2 3 3 7 4 3 3 3 2 34 Charles Rogers '19
Jessica Schnabel '19
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 6 3 5 5 6 7 2 6 4 3 47 Jillian Vogley '19 [1-10]
Austin Lee '17 [1-6]
Drake Hullinger '17 [7-10]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 5 6 4 4 5 2 6 5 7 6 50 Peter Atkins '19 [1, 3, 5-10]
Micalah Blohm '19 [2, 4]
Ben Arnold '19 [1, 3, 5-10]
Anna Blohm '19 [2, 4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 3 5 7 7 4 6 5 9 2 5 53 Thomas Yaeger Jr '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sara Kruempelstaedter '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Anne Murphy '13 [1-2, 5-6]
Helen Carey '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 7 DNF 6 6 3 5 4 4 6 4 55 Justin Edick '19 [1-10]
Luke Petro '19 [1-2]
Lindsey Capel '18 [3-10]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets DNF DNF 8 8 8 DNF 8 7 8 DNS 87 Craig Mueller '19
Chad Kosanovich '17
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes DNS DNF DNF DNF 9 DNF 9 8 9 8 93 Barbara Nainiger '19
Pierce Ciccone '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen1133557799
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 14466881133
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 25577992244
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans2244668811
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 16688113355
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27799224466
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes3355779922
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets8811335577
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos9922446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen2244668811
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 15577992244
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 26688113355
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans3355779922
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 17799224466
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28811335577
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes4466881133
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets9922446688
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Hope College Hope College Jacob Pledger '18 [1-8]
Libby Reeg '17 [9-10]		 Lisette Boer '19 [1-8]
Flying Dutchmen Justin Edick '19 [1-10] Luke Petro '19 [1-2]
Lindsey Capel '18 [3-10]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Rachel Rantanen '19 [1-10] Robin Daniels '19 [1, 5-10]
Erin Mattucci '19 [2]
Emma Hughes '19 [3]
Aleks Oslapas '19 [4]
Spartans Peter Atkins '19 [1, 3, 5-10]
Micalah Blohm '19 [2, 4]		 Ben Arnold '19 [1, 3, 5-10]
Anna Blohm '19 [2, 4]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Jack Rodman '19 [1-10] Mary Woods '19 [1-2]
Noah Porschart '18 [3-10]
Buckeyes Barbara Nainiger '19 Pierce Ciccone '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Nathan Kane '19 Vincent Wyborski '17
Wolverines 1 Charles Rogers '19 Jessica Schnabel '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Alexandra Anderson '16 Amy Baer '19
Wolverines 2 Sonny Jenema '19 Michael Gapuz '18
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Colleen Wiechart '19 Molly Lafave '19
Fighting Irish 1 Kevin Kinneally '19 [1-6]
Harriet Fink '20 [7-10]		 Harriet Fink '20 [1-6]
Cecilia Costa '18 [7-10]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Jacob Hoyt '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Preston Kuppe '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Kelly Heiniger '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Maria Kunath '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Fighting Irish 2 Thomas Yaeger Jr '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sara Kruempelstaedter '19 [3-4, 7-10]		 Anne Murphy '13 [1-2, 5-6]
Helen Carey '18 [3-4, 7-10]
University of Toledo University of Toledo John Lowry '19 Alyan Memon '19
Rockets Craig Mueller '19 Chad Kosanovich '17
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Jillian Vogley '19 Joshua Spano '21
Broncos Jillian Vogley '19 [1-10] Austin Lee '17 [1-6]
Drake Hullinger '17 [7-10]

Conditions — 03/19/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

39°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From ENE (73°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1022.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Notre Dame: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.47 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Notre Dame by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Notre Dame, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →