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Hawkeye Invitational

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 26 15 41
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 27 21 48
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 20 31 51
4 Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 48 43 91
5 University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 45 47 92
6 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 44 53 97
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 5 1 3 20 Eric Villadsen '17
Danielle Green '18
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 3 3 5 2 3 1 3 3 2 1 26 Hannah Noll '15
Anthony Tieso '17
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 4 2 6 4 2 2 1 1 3 2 27 Sonny Jenema '19
Michael Gapuz '18
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 6 5 4 3 6 3 5 2 4 6 44 Henry Stack '19 [1-10]
Colleen O'Rourke '19 [1-2]
Melissa Hartman '18 [3-4]
Benjamin Foster '18 [5-6]
Jonah Simon '17 [7-8]
Ava Clouden '17 [9-10]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 5 4 2 5 4 6 6 4 5 4 45 Maximilian Franze-Soeln '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Lucas Kieffer '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Jessica Roy '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jennifer Lyon '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 2 6 3 6 5 5 4 6 6 5 48 Stefan Peterson '19 [1-10]
Alec Wehmeier '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Christopher Owen '16 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 15 Autumn Morden '15
Susie Voltz '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 21 Charles Rogers '19
Dalia Lache '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 5 1 2 3 6 1 2 5 3 31 Arun Chadda '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
John O'Leary '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Ce Chen '16 [1-10]
Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 4 4 5 5 6 4 4 4 3 4 43 Tate Carlson '19 [1-10]
Alec Wehmeier '18 [1-2]
Jay Carlstrom '18 [3-10]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 6 6 4 4 4 3 5 6 4 5 47 Sarah Caporelli '19 [1-2, 7-10]
Caitlin Chenus '19 [3-4]
Geoffrey Montour '19 [5-6]
Emma Jordan-Wood '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Kyle Brooks '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Geoffrey Montour '19 [9-10]
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 5 3 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 53 Pealer Bryniarski '19 [1-10]
Ryan Laurence '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Colleen O'Rourke '19 [5-6]
Ella Simon '19 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers1133558822
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes4422887755
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University Cyclones2288665533
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines5577114466
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers6644229977
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers7711336688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers2244668822
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes3311775533
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University Cyclones1177553311
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines6688224466
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers5533117755
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers8822446688
School / Team SkipperCrew
Indiana University Indiana University Henry Stack '19 [1-10] Colleen O'Rourke '19 [1-2]
Melissa Hartman '18 [3-4]
Benjamin Foster '18 [5-6]
Jonah Simon '17 [7-8]
Ava Clouden '17 [9-10]
Hoosiers Pealer Bryniarski '19 [1-10] Ryan Laurence '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Colleen O'Rourke '19 [5-6]
Ella Simon '19 [7-8]
Iowa State University Iowa State University Stefan Peterson '19 [1-10] Alec Wehmeier '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Christopher Owen '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Cyclones Tate Carlson '19 [1-10] Alec Wehmeier '18 [1-2]
Jay Carlstrom '18 [3-10]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Maximilian Franze-Soeln '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Lucas Kieffer '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Jessica Roy '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jennifer Lyon '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Hawkeyes Sarah Caporelli '19 [1-2, 7-10]
Caitlin Chenus '19 [3-4]
Geoffrey Montour '19 [5-6]		 Emma Jordan-Wood '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Kyle Brooks '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Geoffrey Montour '19 [9-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Sonny Jenema '19 Michael Gapuz '18
Wolverines Charles Rogers '19 Dalia Lache '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Eric Villadsen '17 Danielle Green '18
Gophers Arun Chadda '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
John O'Leary '16 [3-4, 7-8]		 Ce Chen '16 [1-10]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Hannah Noll '15 Anthony Tieso '17
Panthers Autumn Morden '15 Susie Voltz '19

Conditions — 03/26/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From SE (138°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1017.8 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn · NW 11 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Iowa: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.41 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Iowa by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Iowa, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →