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SAISA South Points #3

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 65
2 Florida State University Florida State University Florida State 72
3 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 79
4 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 88
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 130
6 Ospreys Ospreys Ospreys 151
7 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 151
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Florida University of Florida Gators A 2 8 2 1 4 1 6 24 Samuel Armington '18 [1-7]
Katie Freeley '19 [1-2, 5-7]
Jasmine Dahlby '19 [3-4]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 8 2 7 2 1 2 3 25 Andre Guaragna '21
Jessica Schwartz '18
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State B 5 1 1 3 3 12 1 26 Jeffrey Hayden '20
Alexandria Church '17
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons B 1 3 8 5 6 3 5 31 Matthew Peterson '18 [1-7]
Sage Morgan '18 [1-4]
Carla Szeplaki '20 [5-7]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 6 4 9 4 2 8 7 40 Jack Gower '20
Kelsey Blue '19
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls A 4 5 10 10 7 5 2 43 Kelly Stukbauer '19
Darby Capellin '19
Florida State University Florida State University Florida State A 3 6 5 7 8 13 4 46 Curtis Woodworth '17
Javier Roque '18
University of Florida University of Florida Gators B 9 9 6 11 5 7 8 55 Zachary Boogaart '20
Juliana Cromie '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes A 11 10 3 8 11 4 9 56 Geoffrey Calderone '18
Lisa Diaz '17
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons A 10 7 4 6 9 10 11 57 Samuel Peirson '17 [1-7]
Jamie Johar '19 [1-4]
Virginia Kilbourne '20 [5-7]
Ospreys Ospreys Ospreys A 7 11 12 13 10 6 12 71
Ospreys Ospreys Ospreys B 13 13 13 9 13 9 10 80
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls B 12 12 11 12 12 14 14 87 Kyle Runnfeldt '20 [1-4]
Olivia Balistreri '20 [5-7]
Virginia Ware '20 [1-2]
Madeline Friese '19 [3-4]
Madeline Sierra '20 [5-7]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes B 14 14 14 14 DNF 11 13 95 Benjamin Kaminsky '17
Emma Rose Waldman '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1122333
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators4433222
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State2211191919
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins3344555
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes5577888
OspreysOspreys Ospreys7755444
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls881010151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons101088777
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators16161717181818
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Florida State15151414161616
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins14141515101010
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes17171616141414
OspreysOspreys Ospreys18181919111
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls19191818171717

Conditions — 03/11/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From NNE (25°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover5% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1020.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Eckerd: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Eckerd by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (55 labelled days at Eckerd).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →