Stony Brook Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 15 22 37
2 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 17 20 37
3 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 22 25 47
4 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 44 23 67
5 Retrievers Retrievers Retrievers 46 46 92
6 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 46 55 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 15 Andrew O'Brien '19
Maxwell Cool '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 17 Jeremy Mccauley '20 [1-9]
Peter Sander '17 [1-6]
Maisy Claudio '18 [7-9]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 22 Henry Sanders '18
Anne Caldwell '20
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 5 4 6 5 5 5 6 4 4 44 Muriel Weathers '19
Max Pierce '20
Retrievers Retrievers Retrievers 4 5 5 4 6 6 5 6 5 46
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights DNF 6 4 6 4 4 4 5 6 46 Nina Tucker '18
Ruby Garcia '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 1 3 1 2 4 2 3 1 20 Samantha Mislinski '19 [1-7]
Peter Sander '17 [8-9]
Christopher Mikolaitis '20 [1-6]
Peter Sander '17 [7]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [8-9]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 1 2 22 Jesse Stevenson '19
Peter Teague '18
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 4 4 1 4 1 2 1 2 4 23 Declan Gaylo '19
Galen Ng '20
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 2 4 2 4 1 3 4 3 25 John Colby '20
Niall Shannon '20
Retrievers Retrievers Retrievers 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 46
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights DNS DNS 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 55 Evan Terkanian '19
Presten Demarreau '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights444666222
RetrieversRetrievers Retrievers555111333
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks222444666
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves111333555
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange333555111
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers666222444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights555111333
RetrieversRetrievers Retrievers666222444
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks333555111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves222444666
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange444666222
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers111333555

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1022.6 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1022.6 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · SE 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →