Garner-Tullis

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 51
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 57
3 Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave 61
4 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1 132
5 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2 139
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave A 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 13 Harris Cram '19
Savannah Bush '21
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave A 2 3 3 2 3 1 3 1 18 David Graf '19
Kate Lenhard '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women A 3 1 2 3 1 3 1 4 18 Catie Cullen '20
Grace Bloomfield '19
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave B 4 6 5 4 6 4 4 5 38 Katherine Byrnes '21
Lily Zechiel '21
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women B 5 5 4 6 4 6 6 3 39 Alanna Austin '21
Hannah Erbrick '21
Tulane University Tulane University Angry Wave B 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 6 43 Jessica Andres '20
Kyra Herzberger '21
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1 A 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 7 61 Sofia Giordano '20
Dahlia Martinez '20
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2 A 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 64 Brendon Caliva '20
Sage Kalil '21
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1 B 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 9 71 Patrick Burtchaell '18
Natalie Kulka '21
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2 B 9 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 75 Alexandro Lopez '21
Ben Goldberg '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 111223344
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 22211101099
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave55667788
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave33445566
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women44332211

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 166554433
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 27788991010
Tulane UniversityTulane University Angry Wave1010998877
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave88776655
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave Women9910101122

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From SE (145°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1013.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →