Little Three

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 11 13 24
2 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 11 15 26
3 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 14 23 37
4 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 35 11 46
5 Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 26 36 62
6 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 37 28 65
7 Ephs Ephs Ephs 34 48 82
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 1 3 1 3 1 11 Anna Spiro '21
Allie White '21
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 3 2 1 2 1 2 11 Nathaniel Barton '18
Sarah Levi '19
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 1 3 2 3 2 3 14 Lillian Vincens '19
Christopher Connolly '20
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 4 4 5 4 4 5 26 Wynn Simmons '21
Kelsey Black '21
Ephs Ephs Ephs 7 7 6 5 5 4 34
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 6 5 4 7 7 6 35 Sarah Gallagher '19 [1-6]
Kayla Durandisse '20 [1-3]
Jacqueline Judge '19 [4-6]
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 5 6 7 6 6 7 37 Luke Haggerty '18
Amanda Temares '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 2 1 3 1 2 2 11 Regina Collari '20
Emily Pearson '20
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 1 2 1 4 4 1 13 Ali Dawes '19
Dominoe Jones '19
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 4 3 2 2 1 3 15 Hanna Mass '21
Mollie Ockene '21
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 3 4 4 5 3 4 23 Sarah Bowman '20
Lilliana Delmonico '20
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 5 5 5 3 5 5 28 Emily Graham '19 [1-6]
Mclean Cozine '20 [1-3]
Christopher Rabasa '20 [4-6]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 No Show
Kaylee Sanford '21
Ephs Ephs Ephs DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 48
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths111333
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags222444
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen555777
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers333555
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers444666
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals666111
EphsEphs Ephs777222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths222444
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags333555
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen666111
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers444666
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers555777
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals777222
EphsEphs Ephs111333

Conditions — 04/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1011.6 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From WNW (291°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1011.6 hPa Rain0.12 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wesleyan: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.41 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wesleyan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Wesleyan: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →