2018 SailPack Oriental Intercollegiate

HostNorth Carolina State
Date03/31/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Jacksonville University	Dolphins	26	35	61
2	Jacksonville University	Fins	52	25	77
3	Clemson University	Tigers	50	46	96
4	University of South Carolina	Gamecocks	73	37	110
5	Florida State University	Seminoles	55	66	121
6	Drexel University	Dragons	80	85	165
7	Georgia Institute of Technology	Yellow Jackets	43	132	175
8	University of Maryland	Terps Women	131	52	183
9	William and Mary	Griffin	85	132	217
10	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	115	114	229
11	William and Mary	Tribe	125	107	232
12	Washington College	Shoremen	134	107	241
13	University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Seahawks	74	169	243
14	North Carolina State University	Red Terror	160	87	247
15	University of Maryland	Terps	116 MRP	134 MRP	250 MRP
16	University of North Carolina	North Carolina	133	134	267
17	Virginia Tech	Hokies	132	147	279
18	University of Georgia	Bulldogs	162	131	293
19	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	184	190	374
20	Wildcats	Wildcats	209 MRP	215 MRP	424 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Jacksonville University	Dolphins	2	3	3	1	1	1	7	1	2	5	26	Paula Resto '20 Jessica Schwartz '18
Georgia Institute of Technology	Yellow Jackets	8	4	2	6	6	3	4	4	4	2	43	Conner Killham '18 [1-4] Megan Ploch '21 [5-10] Zoe Genet '21 [1-4]
Clemson University	Tigers	6	2	5	4	3	2	5	9	13	1	50	Carrie Marshall '21 Madison Carroll '20
Jacksonville University	Fins	1	5	1	2	8	18	8	2	3	4	52	Telmo Basterra '21 Ana Carrasco '21
Florida State University	Seminoles	3	11	4	8	2	19	1	3	1	3	55	Jeffrey Hayden '20 Mitchell Powell '20
University of South Carolina	Gamecocks	7	1	6	7	DNS	4	3	6	11	7	73	Sarah Deloach '21 Elizabeth Lonergan '20
University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Seahawks	10	9	9	3	4	7	6	7	10	9	74	Alex Jones '19 James Ahern '19
Drexel University	Dragons	5	8	11	10	5	11	2	14	6	8	80	Frederick Piasecki '20 [1-10] Alison Reed '21 [1-6] Elizabeth Calio '20 [7-10]
William and Mary	Griffin	12	7	8	12	9	9	9	8	5	6	85	Connor Chapin '20 Charles Neff '20
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	14	12	7	9	14	12	11	11	15	10	115	Andrew Edwards '18 [1-10] Mckenna Marquart '18 [1-4] Jason Perryman '21 [5-10]
University of Maryland	Terps	4	6	BKD	5	7	8	13	10	18	15	116 MRP	Zachary Thomas '18 [1-6] Ryan Howard '20 [7-10] Jaimie Martin '18 [1-3] Umd Test '25 [4-6] Jessica Stimely '18 [7-10]
William and Mary	Tribe	9	13	15	13	13	10	12	12	12	16	125	Nina Willms '20 Elizabeth Plaster '20
University of Maryland	Terps Women	13	10	10	15	17	14	14	16	8	14	131	Madeline Mulligan '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Dorsey '20 [3-4, 7-8] Amanda Kushner '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Sean Malone '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	15	16	13	11	11	16	16	5	17	12	132	Noah Schalles '20 Danielle Ababa '20
University of North Carolina	North Carolina	11	15	19	20	10	5	18	15	7	13	133	Thompson Betts '20 [1-2, 7-8] Grace Desena '19 [3-6, 9-10] Alison Tedford '21 [1-4, 7-8] Thompson Betts '20 [5-6, 9-10]
Washington College	Shoremen	18	14	18	19	16	6	10	13	9	11	134	Haber Carlson '21 [1-10] Lindsay Fullerton '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Jessie Ngo '21 [3-4, 7-8]
North Carolina State University	Red Terror	16	17	16	17	15	15	15	17	14	18	160	James Robertson '18 [1-10] Rachel Powell '18 [1-4] Alec Sitton '18 [5-10]
University of Georgia	Bulldogs	19	20	14	14	12	13	17	20	16	17	162	Benjamin Tonks '19 [1-10] Mary James '20 [1-2, 5-8] Andrew Mcilroy '18 [3-4] Savannah Steele '21 [9-10]
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	17	19	20	16	18	17	19	18	20	20	184	Victor Lu '19 Brett Defoy '20
Wildcats	Wildcats	20	18	17	18	19	20	20	19	19	19	209 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Jacksonville University	Fins	3	8	5	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	25	David Perez '21 Rachel Custer '21
Jacksonville University	Dolphins	1	4	8	2	5	2	7	2	2	2	35	Shaynah True '19 [1-6] Kelsy Waack '18 [7-10] Kelsy Waack '18 [1-6] Shaynah True '19 [7-10]
University of South Carolina	Gamecocks	5	2	2	3	1	4	1	6	5	8	37	Mackey Leventis '19 [1-10] Ashley Thess '19 [1-6] Christopher Chaplin '20 [7-10]
Clemson University	Tigers	10	1	3	7	4	5	6	4	3	3	46	Robert Gruskos '20 [1-10] Jenn Casey '20 [1-6, 9-10] Sydney Foley '20 [7-8]
University of Maryland	Terps Women	8	3	1	4	6	6	5	8	7	4	52	Derek Safieh '21 Umd Test '25
Florida State University	Seminoles	12	11	6	5	3	3	14	3	4	5	66	Christopher Deleon '18 [1-2, 7-8] Kurban Ali '21 [3-6, 9-10] Michel Peterson '18 [1-6, 9-10] Kurban Ali '21 [7-8]
Drexel University	Dragons	9	6	7	13	7	8	3	13	9	10	85	Haley Clemson '20 [1-10] Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [1-6] Alexandra Harris '18 [7-10]
North Carolina State University	Red Terror	4	5	4	9	17	20	4	9	8	7	87	Hogan O'Donnell '21 [1-4, 7-10] Jordan Hayes '21 [5-6] Katherine Richardson '19 [1-4, 7-10] Robert Dubman '21 [5-6]
Washington College	Shoremen	2	10	15	6	10	10	13	12	18	11	107	Andrew Houghton '21 Haley Wilt '21
William and Mary	Tribe	16	14	12	8	14	14	10	7	6	6	107	Audrey Fulk '19 [1-10] Grace Holloway '21 [1-4, 7-10] Alina Selnick-Escobar '20 [5-6]
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	6	13	9	11	11	11	8	14	16	15	114	Will Brooks '19 [1-4, 7-10] Victoria Newberry '20 [5-6] Mack Brooks '21 [1-4, 7-10] Anneliese Carlson '21 [5-6]
University of Georgia	Bulldogs	14	15	13	16	9	13	12	10	12	17	131	Alexander Weisel '19 [1-10] Shawn Murphy '18 [1-2, 5-6] Savannah Steele '21 [3-4] Robert Thomas '21 [7-8] Andrew Mcilroy '18 [9-10]
William and Mary	Griffin	17	12	11	12	12	7	15	17	17	12	132	Thomas Griffiths '18 [1-6] Tyler Skelton '19 [7-10] Tyler Skelton '19 [1-6] Alina Selnick-Escobar '20 [7-10]
Georgia Institute of Technology	Yellow Jackets	18	16	10	15	13	15	18	5	13	9	132	David Sutton '19 Kenji Tanaka '18
University of Maryland	Terps	7	9	14	10	8	9	11	15	10	DNS	134 MRP	Jacob Stoner '19 Rowan Afflerbach '19
University of North Carolina	North Carolina	13	7	17	14	15	12	16	11	15	14	134	Ann Burns Morrison '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Emily Smith '20 [3-4, 7-8] Shep Byles '18 [1-4, 9-10] Grace Desena '19 [5-8]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	11	17	16	17	18	16	9	16	14	13	147	Natalie Lovelace '20 Gustav Berner '21
University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Seahawks	15	18	20	19	16	17	17	20	11	16	169	Taylor Wood '18 Elizabeth Howard '20
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	19	20	18	18	20	18	DSQ	19	19	18	190	Mitchell Reel '21 [1-10] Tomasso Giampapa '20 [1-6] Jack Bradley '21 [7-10]
Wildcats	Wildcats	20	19	19	DNF	19	19	DSQ	18	20	19	215 MRP

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Clemson University Tigers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Wildcats Wildcats	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Florida State University Seminoles	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of Georgia Bulldogs	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Jacksonville University Dolphins	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Jacksonville University Fins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
University of Maryland Terps	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
University of Maryland Terps Women	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
University of North Carolina North Carolina	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2
North Carolina State University Red Terror	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Penn State University Nittany Lions	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
University of South Carolina Gamecocks	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4
University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
Virginia Tech Hokies	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
Washington College Shoremen	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6
William and Mary Griffin	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
William and Mary Tribe	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Clemson University Tigers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Wildcats Wildcats	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Florida State University Seminoles	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of Georgia Bulldogs	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Jacksonville University Dolphins	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Jacksonville University Fins	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
University of Maryland Terps	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
University of Maryland Terps Women	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2
University of North Carolina North Carolina	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
North Carolina State University Red Terror	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Penn State University Nittany Lions	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
University of South Carolina Gamecocks	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4
Virginia Tech Hokies	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6
Washington College Shoremen	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
William and Mary Griffin	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
William and Mary Tribe	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Clemson University	Carrie Marshall '21	Madison Carroll '20
Tigers	Robert Gruskos '20 [1-10]	Jenn Casey '20 [1-6, 9-10] Sydney Foley '20 [7-8]
Drexel University	Frederick Piasecki '20 [1-10]	Alison Reed '21 [1-6] Elizabeth Calio '20 [7-10]
Dragons	Haley Clemson '20 [1-10]	Elizabeth Jarvie '18 [1-6] Alexandra Harris '18 [7-10]
Florida State University	Jeffrey Hayden '20	Mitchell Powell '20
Seminoles	Christopher Deleon '18 [1-2, 7-8] Kurban Ali '21 [3-6, 9-10]	Michel Peterson '18 [1-6, 9-10] Kurban Ali '21 [7-8]
Georgia Institute of Technology	Conner Killham '18 [1-4] Megan Ploch '21 [5-10]	Zoe Genet '21 [1-4]
Yellow Jackets	David Sutton '19	Kenji Tanaka '18
Jacksonville University	Paula Resto '20	Jessica Schwartz '18
Dolphins	Shaynah True '19 [1-6] Kelsy Waack '18 [7-10]	Kelsy Waack '18 [1-6] Shaynah True '19 [7-10]
Jacksonville University	Telmo Basterra '21	Ana Carrasco '21
Fins	David Perez '21	Rachel Custer '21
North Carolina State University	James Robertson '18 [1-10]	Rachel Powell '18 [1-4] Alec Sitton '18 [5-10]
Red Terror	Hogan O'Donnell '21 [1-4, 7-10] Jordan Hayes '21 [5-6]	Katherine Richardson '19 [1-4, 7-10] Robert Dubman '21 [5-6]
North Carolina State University	Andrew Edwards '18 [1-10]	Mckenna Marquart '18 [1-4] Jason Perryman '21 [5-10]
Wolfpack	Will Brooks '19 [1-4, 7-10] Victoria Newberry '20 [5-6]	Mack Brooks '21 [1-4, 7-10] Anneliese Carlson '21 [5-6]
Penn State University	Victor Lu '19	Brett Defoy '20
Nittany Lions	Mitchell Reel '21 [1-10]	Tomasso Giampapa '20 [1-6] Jack Bradley '21 [7-10]
University of Georgia	Benjamin Tonks '19 [1-10]	Mary James '20 [1-2, 5-8] Andrew Mcilroy '18 [3-4] Savannah Steele '21 [9-10]
Bulldogs	Alexander Weisel '19 [1-10]	Shawn Murphy '18 [1-2, 5-6] Savannah Steele '21 [3-4] Robert Thomas '21 [7-8] Andrew Mcilroy '18 [9-10]
University of Maryland	Zachary Thomas '18 [1-6] Ryan Howard '20 [7-10]	Jaimie Martin '18 [1-3] Umd Test '25 [4-6] Jessica Stimely '18 [7-10]
Terps	Jacob Stoner '19	Rowan Afflerbach '19
University of Maryland	Madeline Mulligan '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Dorsey '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Amanda Kushner '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Sean Malone '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Terps Women	Derek Safieh '21	Umd Test '25
University of North Carolina	Thompson Betts '20 [1-2, 7-8] Grace Desena '19 [3-6, 9-10]	Alison Tedford '21 [1-4, 7-8] Thompson Betts '20 [5-6, 9-10]
North Carolina	Ann Burns Morrison '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Emily Smith '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Shep Byles '18 [1-4, 9-10] Grace Desena '19 [5-8]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Alex Jones '19	James Ahern '19
Seahawks	Taylor Wood '18	Elizabeth Howard '20
University of South Carolina	Sarah Deloach '21	Elizabeth Lonergan '20
Gamecocks	Mackey Leventis '19 [1-10]	Ashley Thess '19 [1-6] Christopher Chaplin '20 [7-10]
Virginia Tech	Noah Schalles '20	Danielle Ababa '20
Hokies	Natalie Lovelace '20	Gustav Berner '21
Washington College	Haber Carlson '21 [1-10]	Lindsay Fullerton '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Jessie Ngo '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Shoremen	Andrew Houghton '21	Haley Wilt '21
William and Mary	Connor Chapin '20	Charles Neff '20
Griffin	Thomas Griffiths '18 [1-6] Tyler Skelton '19 [7-10]	Tyler Skelton '19 [1-6] Alina Selnick-Escobar '20 [7-10]
William and Mary	Nina Willms '20	Elizabeth Plaster '20
Tribe	Audrey Fulk '19 [1-10]	Grace Holloway '21 [1-4, 7-10] Alina Selnick-Escobar '20 [5-6]

Conditions — 03/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1026.5 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 5.3 kn

Gusts to 14.8 kn

From E (99°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1026.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn* · W 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at North Carolina State: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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