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Stony Brook Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 15 13 28
2 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 25 24 49
3 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 20 30 50
4 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 24 27 51
5 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 23 34 57
6 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 37 34 71
7 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 47 MRP 34 MRP 81 MRP
8 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 45 40 85
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 3 4 4 1 1 15 William Sesack '21 [1-4]
Alexander Ellis '21 [5-6]
Kyle Gelderman '21 [1-4]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 5 1 6 2 2 20 Adam Krzeszowski '21
Maddie Talecki '20
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 5 1 5 1 6 5 23 Adam Devita '18
Zoe Novello '21
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 3 2 3 8 5 3 24 Ben Hunt '21
Matthew Migliozzi '20
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 6 7 2 3 3 4 25 Liliana Loosbrock '21
Elizabeth Keeney '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 7 6 6 2 8 8 37 Micayla Beyer '19 [1-4]
James Gilmore Iii '19 [5-6]
Julia Chapman '21 [1-4]
Nicole Penaloza '20 [5-6]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 8 8 8 7 7 7 45 John Colby '20
Elizabeth Cloherty '19
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1 4 7 5 4 6 47 MRP Matthew Roleke '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 1 2 1 3 5 13 John Wilcenski '21
Hannah Argiros '21
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 2 4 7 4 4 3 24 Isabel De La Torre '20
Charles Johnson '19
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 6 8 4 3 2 4 27 Declan Gaylo '19 [1-6]
Muriel Weathers '19 [1-2]
John Dixon '20 [3-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 3 6 5 7 6 30 Samuel Parsons '21
Kevin Johnston '21
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4 2 3 2 1 2 34 MRP Andrew O'Brien '19
Jesse Stevenson '19
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 5 6 1 6 8 8 34 Pierre Casenave-Pere '20
Daniel Yang '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 8 7 5 8 5 1 34 Gaura Mudgal '18
Jessica Nelson '18
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 7 5 8 7 6 7 40 Dane Brazinski '21
John Lightcap '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions 1113355
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions 2224466
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners771133
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers335577
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks557711
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves446688
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange668822
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers882244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions 1224466
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions 2335577
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners882244
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers446688
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks668822
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves557711
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange771133
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers113355

Conditions — 03/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1024.4 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From W (261°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1024.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.48 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →