SAISA South Points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 14 7 21
2 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 12 16 28
3 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 18 14 32
4 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 19 32 51
5 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 31 24 55
6 New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 32 33 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 1 3 1 2 4 12 Christian Koules '21
Samantha Kappaz '21
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 3 2 2 4 1 14 Scott Hansen '21
Lauren Theis '22
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 3 4 4 3 1 3 18 Matthew Snyder '22 [1-6]
Jasmine Dahlby '19 [1-4]
Derek Pearson '21 [5-6]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 4 2 1 5 5 2 19 Teagan Walsh '20
Corinne Keogh '21
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 5 6 6 6 3 5 31 Trevor Stone '20
Jordan Hayes '22
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 6 5 5 4 6 6 32 Anna Feldbush '22
Clinton Overton '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20
Elizabeth Johnson '22
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 1 3 3 2 3 2 14 Anderson Brunsvold '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathaniel Keyes '22 [3-4]
Penny Farmer '22 [1-2, 5-6]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 2 2 3 2 4 16 Lexie Foos '22
Carolina Perez Rovira '22
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 4 4 4 5 4 3 24 Michael Kaufman '22
William Mccarthy '22
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 5 6 5 6 5 5 32 Harrison Fang '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Simon Munoz '20 [3-4]
Simon Munoz '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Harrison Fang '19 [3-4]
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 6 5 6 4 6 6 33 Renbourn Chock '19
Bug Dykema '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators551133
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles113355
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins224466
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls335511
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars446622
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls662244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators662244
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles224466
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins335511
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls446622
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars551133
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls113355

Conditions — 03/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From NNE (15°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1021.1 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Florida: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Florida, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →