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Jumbo Masters - Tufts Alumni Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 11 11
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 18 18
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 23 23
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 27 27
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 28 28
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 30 30
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 31 31
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 60 60
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 11 Marley Hillman '21
Marley Hillman '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 3 5 1 7 1 1 18 Art Cunningham '19
Jacob Whitney '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 4 6 5 4 2 2 23 Douglas Kckeige '19
Natalie Danziger '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 5 2 7 3 4 6 27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 2 7 3 5 7 4 28 Reid Van Gorder '04
Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 7 4 6 2 6 5 30 James Jacob '19
Erin Jacob '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 6 3 4 6 5 7 31 Aaron Klein '18
Hailey Mckelvie '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Michael Edelman '90
Daniel Edelman '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Alex Mountjoy '97
Kristina Puzak '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 5121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 6131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 7111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 8111111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 9222222

Conditions — 05/18/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNW (348°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1013.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−2.38 ± 0.42)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →