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Lake Virginia Spring Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 4 6 10
2 New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 8 18 26
3 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2 19 11 30
4 Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 14 18 32
5 University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 24 9 33
6 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 1 15 22 37
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 1 1 1 4 Alec Bischoff '20
Jack Rachek '21
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 2 2 2 2 8 Anna Feldbush '22
Clinton Overton '20
Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 3 4 3 4 14 Aaron Maggiacomo '20
Corinna Lambright '21
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 1 4 3 5 3 15 Samantha Capozzi '21
Oliver Santry '19
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2 5 5 4 5 19 Simon Munoz '20
Connor Mcnamara '22
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 6 6 6 6 24 Lucien Lagrange '23
Liam Kenney '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 1 1 2 6 Reid Levick '20
Sarah Harrington '22
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 3 3 2 1 9 Thomas Masterson '22
No Show
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2 1 2 5 3 11 Nick Baker '20
Fernando Herrera '20
Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 5 4 4 5 18 Kirsten Delany '19 [1-4]
Alexis Kehmna '20 [1-2]
Ashley Smith '22 [3-4]
New College of Florida New College of Florida Nulls 6 5 3 4 18 Renbourn Chock '19
Michelle Guyette '20
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 1 4 6 6 6 22 Jack Dillard '21
Nicholas Catranis '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles1133
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls2244
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish3355
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 14466
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 25511
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights6622

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles2244
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida Nulls3355
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish4466
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 15511
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars 26622
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights1133

Conditions — 03/30/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From ESE (116°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1018.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Rollins: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.29)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →