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SAISA South Points #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 16 16 32
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 25 10 35
3 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 26 23 49
4 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 16 45 61
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 29 33 62
6 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 39 26 65
7 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 45 43 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 2 2 1 2 2 2 5 16 Brandon Kirby '20
Juliana Cromie '20
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 4 1 7 1 1 1 1 16 Brett Putnam '22
Chloe Sweeting '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 3 6 5 3 4 3 25 Scott Hansen '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Gigi Arias '21 [3-4]
Sara Flowerday '22 [1-4, 7]
Gigi Arias '21 [5-6]
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 3 6 2 3 5 5 2 26 Kurban Ali '21
Lauren Moran '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 29 Leah Harper '22
Trevor Robohn '22
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 6 5 3 6 6 7 6 39 Liam Farese '22
Samantha Pynchon '20
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 7 7 4 7 7 6 7 45 Robert Anderson '21
Fernando Herrera '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 10 Ben Mckissick-Hawley '20
Elizabeth Johnson '22
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 2 1 2 3 4 2 16 Kyle Runnfeldt '20
Lexie Foos '22
Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 6 3 5 3 1 2 3 23 Trevor Stone '20
Marissa Williamson '21
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 4 4 2 5 4 3 4 26 Joshua Cole '22
Carla Szeplaki '20
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 3 7 4 4 5 5 5 33 Joseph Ricca '21
Ariel Casaretto '21
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 43 Ryan O'Donnell '20
Nicolas Ladino '22
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 7 5 7 7 6 6 7 45 No Show [1-3, 6-7]
Meredith Mcintosh '22 [4-5]
Meredith Mcintosh '22 [1-3, 6-7]
No Show [4-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1122334
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators5566771
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles2233445
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins3344556
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes6677112
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars4455667
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls7711223

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons13131414151516
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators17171818191913
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles14141515161617
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins15151616171718
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes18181919131314
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars16161717181819
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls19191313141415

Conditions — 03/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From S (170°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1019.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jacksonville: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →