Big Easy Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 14 14
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 22 22
3 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 34 34
4 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 35 35
5 University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 1 43 43
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 51 51
7 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1 59 59
8 University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 2 73 73
9 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2 74 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 14 Katherine Byrnes '21
Josephine Larkin '20
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 1 2 1 2 1 1 4 4 2 5 22 Erik Schumann '22
Isabella Bentz '24
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 4 3 6 4 5 2 2 4 4 34 Taima Crean '22 [1-3]
Gabriella Wong '20 [4-9]
Gabriella Wong '20 [1-3]
Allie Gretzinger '21 [4-6]
Mariana Caldas '20 [7-9]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 5 4 3 6 3 1 3 3 7 35 Eli Eckhouse '21
William Hoover '20
University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 1 6 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 2 43 Emma Cooledge '20 [1-9]
Daniel Leffman '23 [1, 6-7]
Kaleigh Goetz '20 [2-5, 8-9]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 3 8 7 3 6 8 6 7 3 51 Etienne Black '23 [1-9]
Kellen Cody '21 [1-5]
Dante Alibrio '23 [6-9]
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1 7 6 5 7 9 7 7 5 6 59 Sofia Giordano '20
Audrey Pugh '23
University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 2 8 9 8 9 8 5 9 8 9 73 Jamie Weston '22
William Bass '20
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2 9 7 9 8 7 9 8 9 8 74 Victoria Bender '22
Matthew Mastin '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1111112222
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 2222223333
University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas Mean Green 1666667777
University of North TexasUniversity of North Texas Mean Green 2777778888
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 1888889999
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns 2999991111
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 1333334444
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 2444445555
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave 3555556666

Conditions — 02/29/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1027.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1027.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tulane: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.25
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.41 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →