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SEISA Clinegatta

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 1 7–1
2 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 2 6–2
3 University of North Texas University of North Texas Mean Green 5–3
4 University of Central Oklahoma University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 1–7
5 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,096 team race matches sailed before 2020-01-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.403 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.54: a typical event, more orderly than 75% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Texas
Longhorns 1		13.46
school −0.10, home +0.36		Emily Verdoia / Arosh Chaudhari 1.43
Frederik Winguth / Warren Wegener 0.71
John Mason / Kellen Cody 3–1
John Mason / Thomas Norman 2–0		79%5–1 (83%)+0.2
2University of Texas
Longhorns 2		22.85
school −0.10, home +0.36		Karina Bertelsmann / Lillian Andersen 1.03
Theresa Mccomiskey / Etienne Black 3–1
Gabriella Wong / Mckenzie Kotara 3–1
Caroline Dubois-Weber / Mariana Caldas 1–1
Gabriella Wong / Vojtech Pavlis 1–1		70%4–2 (67%)−0.2
3University of North Texas
Mean Green		31.20
school +0.11		Meri Keskimaula / Daniel Leffman
Emma Cooledge / Jamie Weston 0.35
Marcin Kostrzewa / Sara Curtis 0.19		30%3–3 (50%)+1.2
5Loyola University New Orleans
Wolfpack		40.72
school −0.14		Natalie Kulka / Ana Avramovic
Dahlia Martinez / Matthew Mastin
Ben Goldberg / Audrey Pugh		21%0–6 (0%)−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of North Texas Mean Green1.202.323–31.8+1.111.022%
1University of Texas Longhorns 13.463.805–14.8+0.340.163%
2University of Texas Longhorns 22.852.654–24.2−0.190.077%
5Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack0.72-2.280–61.2≤−3.002.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Meri KeskimaulaUniversity of North Texas0.311.423–31.8+1.111.022%
Emma CooledgeUniversity of North Texas0.351.473–31.8+1.111.022%
Marcin KostrzewaUniversity of North Texas0.191.303–31.8+1.111.022%
Emily VerdoiaUniversity of Texas1.431.775–14.8+0.340.163%
Frederik WinguthUniversity of Texas0.711.055–14.8+0.340.163%
John MasonUniversity of Texas0.881.225–14.8+0.340.163%
Gabriella WongUniversity of Texas0.740.554–24.2−0.190.077%
Karina BertelsmannUniversity of Texas1.030.844–24.2−0.190.077%
Theresa MccomiskeyUniversity of Texas0.39-0.013–13.3−0.400.185%
Natalie KulkaLoyola University New Orleans-1.00-4.000–61.2≤−3.002.0>99%
Ben GoldbergLoyola University New Orleans0.84-2.160–61.2≤−3.002.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
12University of Texas Longhorns 1Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack95%
14University of North Texas Mean GreenLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack60%
15University of Texas Longhorns 2University of Texas Longhorns 148%upset
17University of Texas Longhorns 1University of North Texas Mean Green91%
18University of Texas Longhorns 2Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack85%
110University of Texas Longhorns 2University of North Texas Mean Green79%
212University of Texas Longhorns 1Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack94%
214University of North Texas Mean GreenLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack59%
215University of Texas Longhorns 1University of Texas Longhorns 253%
217University of Texas Longhorns 1University of North Texas Mean Green90%
218University of Texas Longhorns 2Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack84%
220University of North Texas Mean GreenUniversity of Texas Longhorns 221%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.12GreenBronchosWolfpack
University of Texas Longhorns 17–1✕✕WWW
University of Texas Longhorns 27–1✕✕WWW
University of North Texas Mean Green2–2LL✕WW
University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos1–3LLL✕W
Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.12GreenBronchosWolfpack
University of Texas Longhorns 16–2✕✕LWW
University of Texas Longhorns 26–2✕✕LWW
University of North Texas Mean Green3–1WW✕WW
University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos0–4LLL✕L
Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-3 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 4-5-6
2 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6
3 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-2-3 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 4-5-6
4 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-6 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 3-4-5
5 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-3-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 1 2-5-6
6 University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 1-2-4 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 3-5-6
7 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-3 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 4-5-6
8 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6
9 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-3 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 4-5-6
10 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-2-5 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 3-4-6
11 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-4 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 3-5-6
12 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6
13 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-2-5 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 3-4-6
14 University of North Texas Mean Green 1-2-3 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4-5-6
15 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-3-4 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 2-5-6
16 Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1-4-5 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 2-3-6
17 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-5 def. University of North Texas Mean Green 3-4-6
18 University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-2-4 def. Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 3-5-6
19 University of Texas Longhorns 1 1-2-3 def. University of Central Oklahoma Bronchos 4-5-6
20 University of North Texas Mean Green 2-3-5 def. University of Texas Longhorns 2 1-4-6

Conditions — 01/26/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1015.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Texas — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Texas in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled fleet-race days at Texas).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →