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Southern Collegiate Offshore - B

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 17 17
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 26 26
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 27 27
4 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 37 37
5 Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 42 42
6 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 43 43
7 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 50 50
8 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 52 52
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 1 1 2 1 4 2 4 2 17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 3 1 2 3 1 6 7 26
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2 4 DNF 2 5 2 1 27
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 6 5 3 3 7 3 7 3 37
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 5 7 5 5 6 7 1 6 42
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 4 6 7 4 5 8 5 4 43
Fordham University Fordham University Rams DNF 4 DNF DNF 1 4 DNF 5 50
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 7 8 6 6 8 6 3 8 52

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  8 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Curtis Aaron '21Villanova University8/80.692.58+1.8957th → 99th9.01%2.1 / 4.6
2Luke Ingalls '21University of Rhode Island8/82.211.03−1.1899th → 75th5.478%3.2 / 2.6
3Tye Rubin '22University of Wisconsin8/81.062.01+0.9576th → 99th2.329%3.4 / 4.1
4Max Ellsworth '21University of Michigan8/80.140.57+0.4322nd → 54th0.628%4.6 / 5.4
5Kyle Meyhoefer '21Georgia Institute of Technology8/80.240.25+0.0136th → 36th0.053%5.2 / 5.2
6Jared Cronin '21University of South Carolina8/80.370.06−0.3242nd → 18th0.363%5.4 / 5.0
7Tucker Hersam '20Fordham University8/81.861.55−0.3197th → 91st0.2>99%6.2 / 3.0
8Lucas Holde '20North Carolina State University8/8-0.43-1.04−0.613rd → 1st0.865%6.5 / 6.1

Conditions — 02/15/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1031.5 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1031.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →