| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 4–2 |
| 2 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 2–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,587 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 9 matches (44%) with a log-loss of 0.813 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 3 | 7.42 school −0.17, home +0.34 | Carrson Pearce / Kieran Cullen 3.43 David Pearce / Ruby Redmond Thomas Green / Rachel Beisswenger 2.26 | 34% | 4–2 (67%) | +2.0 |
| 2 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1 | 8.11 school −0.12 | Benton Amthor / Eva Leggett 3.21 John Vail / Kaitlin Brzostek Spencer Barnes / Marcus Adam | 60% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.6 |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2 | 8.02 school +0.18 | Charles Carraway / Sarah Smith 2.58 Jake Vickers / Katherine Klempen 3.08 Will Foox / Aidan Morgan 1–2 Will Foox / Tory Mileti 1–2 | 56% | 2–4 (33%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 7.42 | 8.78 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +1.36 | 1.9 | 11% |
| 2 | SUNY Maritime College | 8.11 | 7.71 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 8.02 | 7.04 | 2–4 | 3.4 | −0.99 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 3.43 | 4.79 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +1.36 | 1.9 | 11% |
| David Pearce | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 1.39 | 2.75 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +1.36 | 1.9 | 11% |
| Thomas Green | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 2.26 | 3.62 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +1.36 | 1.9 | 11% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Mariners | Privateers | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Mariners | Privateers | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–1 | W | ✕ | L |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Mariners | Privateers | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–1 | ✕ | W | L |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Privateers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Privateers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Privateers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | Carrson Pearce '21 David Pearce '23 Thomas Green '23 |
Kieran Cullen '21 Ruby Redmond '24 Rachel Beisswenger '22 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Benton Amthor '23 John Vail '24 Spencer Barnes '24 |
Eva Leggett '24 Kaitlin Brzostek '22 Marcus Adam '23 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Charles Carraway '22 Jake Vickers '22 Will Foox '24 |
Sarah Smith '22 Katherine Klempen '22 Aidan Morgan '21 Tory Mileti '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
