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Mariner Seawolf Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 7 7
2 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 11 11
3 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4 20 20
4 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 22 22
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 24 24
6 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 26 26
7 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 31 31
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 2 1 1 1 2 7 Dax Thompson '24
Jordan Rendzio '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 1 2 5 2 1 11 Christopher Adkins '23
Micah Warren '23
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4 3 4 6 3 4 20 Mallory Reading '24
Kristin Hess '22
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 5 3 7 4 3 22 Adam Zeng '24
Morgan Bittmann '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 6 6 2 5 5 24 Kevin Johnston '21 [1-3]
Andrew Campbell '23 [4-5]
Kristy Nilsson '24 [1-3]
Alyssa Davis '24 [4-5]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 4 5 3 7 7 26 Keith Bannerman '22
Jessica O’Connor '23
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 7 DNF 4 6 6 31 Ryan Magill '22
Julia Chapman '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 155555
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 266666
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 377777
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 111111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 222222
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 333333
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 444444

Conditions — 04/10/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1015.3 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1015.3 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →