Breeze: N 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.19)
Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0).
Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected.
Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of
±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.
The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s
pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising.
The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing.
How this is estimated ·
compare venues.