SAISA North Points #2 @ UNCW

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 47
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 78
3 The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs 127
4 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 133
5 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 16 Hogan O'Donnell '21
Olivia Gregg '22
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 3 2 2 1 4 5 4 1 6 3 31 Olivia Sowa '24
Ella Troiano '24
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror A 2 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 5 2 32 Blake Daniel '23
Jacqueline Cherry '22
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror B 5 4 9 6 1 4 1 7 3 6 46 Nicholas Dimarco '22
Jesse Price '22
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs A 4 5 3 4 7 6 10 4 4 8 55 Gregory Walters '24
Brooke Cheatham '23
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers B 7 3 5 7 9 2 7 8 7 7 62 Grant Hanchar '23
No Show
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers A 8 9 7 5 6 7 6 9 9 5 71 Claude De Lamater-Brotherton '21
Heyward Derrick '21
The Citadel The Citadel Bulldogs B 9 8 8 8 8 10 5 10 2 4 72 Robert Turner '22
Kingsland Bland '23
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks A 6 7 6 9 10 8 8 6 8 10 78 Kristen Rhodes '21
No Show
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks B 10 10 10 10 5 9 9 5 10 9 87 Christine Moore '24
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs4444444444
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers1111111111
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror3333333333
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack2222222222
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks5555555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
The CitadelThe Citadel Bulldogs9999999999
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers6666666666
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror8888888888
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack7777777777
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks10101010101010101010

Conditions — 03/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From NNW (347°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine3.1 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UNC Wilmington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at UNC Wilmington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →