| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
University of North Texas | Mean Green | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
Baylor University | Bears | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 18,258 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 9 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.219 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 1 | 9.93 home +0.36 | Thad Lettsome / Grace Siwicki 3.04 Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.53 Asher Zittrer / Gillian Perrell 2.96 | 100% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | University of Texas Longhorns | 2 | 3.79 | Karina Bertelsmann / Leigha Forrest 1.65 Theresa Mccomiskey / Warren Wegener 1.26 Thomas Norman / Sophia Herrada 0.77 | 30% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.2 |
| 3 | University of North Texas Mean Green | 3 | 3.35 school +0.18 | Dutch Byerly / Erik Ardovino 2.31 Taylor Snyder / Timothy Verriere 0.61 Jamie Weston / Rohit Rajan 0.16 | 20% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University | 9.93 | 12.93 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 99% |
| 2 | University of Texas | 3.79 | 4.03 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 3 | University of North Texas | 3.35 | 3.10 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Zittrer | Tulane University | 2.96 | 5.96 | 6–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 99% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | University of Texas | 1.65 | 1.89 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Theresa Mccomiskey | University of Texas | 1.26 | 1.50 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Thomas Norman | University of Texas | 0.77 | 1.01 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Taylor Snyder | University of North Texas | 0.61 | 0.35 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Jamie Weston | University of North Texas | 0.16 | -0.09 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 77% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | University of North Texas | University of Texas | 38% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Tulane University | University of North Texas | 100% | |
| 1 | 5 | Tulane University | University of Texas | 100% | |
| 2 | 8 | Tulane University | University of Texas | 100% | |
| 2 | 10 | Tulane University | University of North Texas | 100% | |
| 2 | 11 | University of Texas | University of North Texas | 61% | |
| 3 | 14 | University of Texas | University of North Texas | 61% | |
| 3 | 15 | Tulane University | University of North Texas | 100% | |
| 3 | 18 | Tulane University | University of Texas | 100% |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Longhorns | Green | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| University of North Texas Mean Green | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Baylor University Bears | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Longhorns | Green | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of North Texas Mean Green | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Baylor University Bears | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Longhorns | Green | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of North Texas Mean Green | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Baylor University Bears | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mean Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Longhorns | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mean Green | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Mean Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mean Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mean Green | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mean Green | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Longhorns | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mean Green | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mean Green | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Mean Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Longhorns | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Asher Zittrer '23 Cameron Giblin '23 Thad Lettsome '24 |
Gillian Perrell '24 Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Grace Siwicki '22 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Karina Bertelsmann '22 Theresa Mccomiskey '22 Thomas Norman '23 |
Leigha Forrest '24 Warren Wegener '23 Sophia Herrada '24 |
|
University of North Texas | Mean Green | Dutch Byerly '24 Jamie Weston '22 Taylor Snyder '24 |
Erik Ardovino '25 Rohit Rajan '26 Timothy Verriere '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
