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Western LI Sound Fleet Race Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 4 17 17
2 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 29 29
3 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 2 40 40
4 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 44 44
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 62 62
6 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 3 67 67
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 74 74
8 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 6 81 81
9 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 84 84
10 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 88 88
11 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 91 91
12 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 103 103
13 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 130 130
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 4 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 17 Rayne Duff '25
Zachary Doerr '24
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 1 5 2 2 3 5 2 3 5 1 1 29 Payne Donaldson '24
Kenna Reed '24
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 2 7 1 4 2 2 5 4 2 10 3 40 Evan Spalding '24
Kadi Zheng '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 3 8 3 8 3 3 5 3 3 5 44 Dax Thompson '24
Jordan Rendzio '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 2 3 10 4 6 11 8 7 4 7 62 Patrick Mccarron '25
Ryleigh Benson '25
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 3 9 4 5 10 4 6 2 11 12 4 67 George Hambleton '21
Burke Kanemasu '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 10 5 11 5 8 4 9 8 5 9 74 Aiden Keister '24
Kara Lerudis '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 6 6 7 7 7 11 7 10 10 8 8 81 Patrick York '24
Keith Destaebler '24
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 11 11 9 9 7 8 11 6 6 6 84 Kristin Hess '22 [1-10]
Gerrit Bittmann '24 [1-5]
Jessica Schaefer '23 [6-10]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 4 9 8 11 10 9 7 9 9 12 88 Gus Schoenbucher '25
Rylie Durant '25
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 8 10 6 6 9 10 12 12 7 11 91 Ryan Magill '22 [1-7, 9-10]
Gerrit Bittmann '24 [8]
Morgan Bittmann '24 [1-9]
Chih-Yu Liu '23 [10]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 12 12 12 12 12 12 6 4 11 10 103 Ellary Boyd '24
Ruby Redmond '24
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 130 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 14444444444
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 25555555555
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 36666666666
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 47777777777
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 58888888888
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 69999999999
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 11111111111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 22222222222
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 33333333333
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers 110101010101010101010
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers 211111111111111111111
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers 312121212121212121212
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers 413131313131313131313

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1002.6 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From WSW (252°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1002.6 hPa Rain0.09 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Kings Point: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →