Seawolf Spring Open

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 51
2 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 63
3 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 85
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 138
5 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 162
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 B 1 3 1 1 4 4 3 4 2 23 Jessica Schaefer '23
Morgan Bittmann '24
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 A 2 2 2 6 6 1 1 2 6 28 Ryan Magill '22
Margaret Myers-Aldous '25
Columbia University Columbia University Lions B 6 4 3 2 1 3 7 1 1 28 Chase O'Malley '26
Alison Keenan '22
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 A 4 5 4 3 3 5 2 3 5 34 Gerrit Bittmann '24
Hannah Forcone '25
Columbia University Columbia University Lions A 3 1 5 8 2 2 5 6 3 35 Alexander Yuen '25
Elaine Kharbanda '24
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 B 5 6 6 4 8 7 6 5 4 51 Rose Von Eckartsberg '25 [1-9]
Chih-Yu Liu '23 [1-5]
Arwen Lopez '26 [6-9]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 A 8 7 7 5 5 6 4 7 8 57 Olivia Cross '26
Mary Haley '23
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 A 7 8 8 7 7 DNF DNS DNS DNS 81 Elliot Taft '23
Jack Cossari '26
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 1 B 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 81 Mary Morris '26
Amber Kopf '25
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 2 B 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 81 Danny Amron '25
Gabriella Maldonado '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions111111111
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1222222222
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2333333333
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 1444444444
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 2555555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions666666666
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1777777777
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2888888888
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 1999999999
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange 2101010101010101010

Conditions — 03/05/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 26.2 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1018.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.45 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →