| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,427 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 3 of 3 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.009 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 1 | 8.42 school +0.17, home +0.43 | Caroline Benson / Abigail Borggaard 2.81 Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.56 Lucy Spearman / Megan Cassidy | 99% | 3–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 2 | 3.70 | Hanna Progelhof / Renee Oswalt 1.14 Kate Hennig / Zoe Madrid 0.96 Emily Davison / Maggie Menefee | 1% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University | 8.42 | 11.42 | 3–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 2 | Texas A&M University | 3.70 | 0.70 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.56 | 5.56 | 3–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| Hanna Progelhof | Texas A&M University | 1.14 | -1.86 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Emily Davison | Texas A&M University | 1.56 | -1.44 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 99% | |
| 2 | 2 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 99% | |
| 3 | 3 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 99% |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Caroline Benson '23 Lucy Spearman '25 Mia Hanes '24 |
Abigail Borggaard '24 Megan Cassidy '26 Essie Clifton '25 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Emily Davison '24 Hanna Progelhof '25 Kate Hennig '26 |
Maggie Menefee '25 Renee Oswalt '24 Zoe Madrid '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
