Texas A&M University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 1.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–17 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 9–5 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 6–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 15–17 against 12.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | SEISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.28 | 4.66 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +3.39 | 4.1 | 3% |
| 2024-04-06 | SEISA Open Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.43 | 1.53 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2023-04-16 | SEISA Women’s Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.14 | -1.86 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| 2023-04-15 | SEISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.07 | 1.80 | 3–6 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2023-02-04 | Q1 Regatta | skipper | 0.91 | 1.14 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 60% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
