Keelhauler Open

HostCal Maritime
Date04/01/2023
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	66
2	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	142
3	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	154
4	Texas A&M University	Aggies	162
5	Arizona State University	Sun Devils	194

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1 A	2	2	3	10	1	1	3	1	1	1	1	2	1	29	Kyle Farmer '26 Logan Chapman '26
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1 B	1	3	2	2	5	4	1	3	3	4	2	3	4	37	Ryan Downey '25 Charles Bedford '24
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2 A	3	4	6	4	8	6	8	2	5	3	5	1	2	57	Conner Skewes '25 Kawika Tumilowicz '25
Texas A&M University	Aggies A	5	1	9	1	4	7	7	5	4	10	9	4	6	72	Hanna Progelhof '25 [1-13] Cole Broberg '25 [1-7] Ryyan Amsden '24 [8-13]
University of California at San Diego	Tritons A	4	5	1	3	6	5	6	6	9	5	7	DNF	5	73	Sebastien Franck '23 [1-13] Cassidy Murray '24 [1-8] Cassie Halaszynski '25 [9-13]
University of California at San Diego	Tritons B	6	6	4	6	3	3	5	7	10	7	10	5	9	81	Tobie Bloom '23 [1-13] Bella Valente '24 [1-11] Aron Mcconnell '23 [12-13]
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2 B	7	8	8	7	2	8	2	8	6	9	6	7	7	85	Etienne Quille '25 [1-7] Christopher Shintani '25 [8-13] Christopher Shintani '25 [1-7] James Davis '26 [8-13]
Texas A&M University	Aggies B	9	9	10	8	9	10	9	4	2	2	4	DNF	3	90	Kate Hennig '26 Emily Davison '24
Arizona State University	Sun Devils A	8	7	5	5	7	9	4	10	8	8	8	8	8	95	Mitchell Powers '25 Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Arizona State University	Sun Devils B	10	10	7	9	10	2	10	9	7	6	3	6	10	99	Sadie Hoberman '25 Patrick Gardiner '26

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Arizona State University Sun Devils	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101
Texas A&M University Aggies	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
University of California at San Diego Tritons	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Arizona State University Sun Devils	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Texas A&M University Aggies	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of California at San Diego Tritons	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Mitchell Powers '25	Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Sun Devils	Sadie Hoberman '25	Patrick Gardiner '26
California Maritime Academy	Kyle Farmer '26	Logan Chapman '26
Keelhaulers 1	Ryan Downey '25	Charles Bedford '24
California Maritime Academy	Conner Skewes '25	Kawika Tumilowicz '25
Keelhaulers 2	Etienne Quille '25 [1-7] Christopher Shintani '25 [8-13]	Christopher Shintani '25 [1-7] James Davis '26 [8-13]
Texas A&M University	Hanna Progelhof '25 [1-13]	Cole Broberg '25 [1-7] Ryyan Amsden '24 [8-13]
Aggies	Kate Hennig '26	Emily Davison '24
University of California at San Diego	Sebastien Franck '23 [1-13]	Cassidy Murray '24 [1-8] Cassie Halaszynski '25 [9-13]
Tritons	Tobie Bloom '23 [1-13]	Bella Valente '24 [1-11] Aron Mcconnell '23 [12-13]

Conditions — 04/01/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1023.6 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 8.9 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From WSW (243°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1023.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · W 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Cal Maritime: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Cal Maritime: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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