| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 6–3 |
| 3 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,260 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 18 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.073 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.47 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 92% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 1 | 9.29 school +0.17, home +0.44 | Zander King / Abigail Borggaard 2.78 Thad Lettsome / Matheo Graham-Capasso 2.95 Asher Zittrer / Brady Starck 2.94 | 100% | 9–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | University of Texas Longhorns | 2 | 4.76 school +0.10 | Ethan Froelich / Sophia Herrada 2.44 Etienne Black / Rohit Rajan 0.49 John Mason / Leigha Forrest 1.69 | 63% | 6–3 (67%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 3 | 2.32 school −0.10 | Cole Broberg / John Lee 0.46 Hanna Progelhof / Ian Casteel 1.07 Ryan Ingram / Maggie Menefee | 27% | 3–6 (33%) | +0.6 |
| 4 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 4 | 1.32 school −0.20 | Jacob Granberry / Brett Pearson 0.83 Isaac Barkley / Jean-Luc Murray 0.63 Cecillia Siegel / Luke Tezza | 10% | 0–9 (0%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University | 9.29 | 12.29 | 9–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 96% |
| 2 | University of Texas | 4.76 | 5.95 | 6–3 | 5.7 | +1.20 | 0.2 | 72% |
| 3 | Texas A&M University | 2.32 | 3.05 | 3–6 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 4 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.32 | -1.68 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Zittrer | Tulane University | 2.94 | 5.94 | 9–0 | 9.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 96% |
| Etienne Black | University of Texas | 0.49 | 1.69 | 6–3 | 5.7 | +1.20 | 0.2 | 72% |
| John Mason | University of Texas | 1.69 | 2.88 | 6–3 | 5.7 | +1.20 | 0.2 | 72% |
| Cole Broberg | Texas A&M University | 0.46 | 1.18 | 3–6 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 49% |
| Hanna Progelhof | Texas A&M University | 1.07 | 1.80 | 3–6 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 49% |
| Jacob Granberry | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 0.83 | -2.17 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Isaac Barkley | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 0.63 | -2.37 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Cecillia Siegel | Texas A&M University at Galveston | -0.21 | -3.21 | 0–9 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 2 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Longhorns | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-3-6 DNF |
| 4 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Aggies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Longhorns | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Asher Zittrer '23 Thad Lettsome '24 Zander King '25 |
Brady Starck '25 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Abigail Borggaard '24 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Ethan Froelich '24 Etienne Black '23 John Mason '23 |
Sophia Herrada '24 Rohit Rajan '26 Leigha Forrest '24 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Cole Broberg '25 Hanna Progelhof '25 Ryan Ingram '25 |
John Lee '25 Ian Casteel '26 Maggie Menefee '25 |
|
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | Cecillia Siegel '25 Isaac Barkley '26 Jacob Granberry '26 |
Luke Tezza '25 Jean-Luc Murray '26 Brett Pearson '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
