| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,921 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 9 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.530 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 1 | 7.06 school +0.08 | Mia Hanes / Raquel Shulman 2.67 Ashley Hoguet / Caitlin Briggs 2.07 Oakley Cunningham / Caroline Caudron | 99% | 5–1 (83%) | −0.9 |
| 2 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 2 | 3.02 school −0.26 | Kate Hennig / Kennedy Long 1.15 Hanna Progelhof / Menya Bird 1.28 Sydney Krahulik / Evelyn Dubois 0.78 | 41% | 4–2 (67%) | +1.5 |
| 3 | University of Texas Longhorns | 3 | 1.62 home +0.42 | Sophia Herrada / Delilah D'Souza 0.09 Madi Ang / Reema Nannapaneni Daisy Prince / Tammy Xu | 10% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Texas A&M University | 3.02 | 6.40 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +3.39 | 4.1 | 3% |
| 1 | Tulane University | 7.06 | 4.10 | 5–1 | 5.9 | −2.96 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 3 | University of Texas | 1.62 | -1.38 | 0–6 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanna Progelhof | Texas A&M University | 1.28 | 4.66 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +3.39 | 4.1 | 3% |
| Sydney Krahulik | Texas A&M University | 0.78 | 4.17 | 4–2 | 2.5 | +3.39 | 4.1 | 3% |
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.67 | -0.28 | 5–1 | 5.9 | −2.96 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Ashley Hoguet | Tulane University | 2.07 | -0.88 | 5–1 | 5.9 | −2.96 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Sophia Herrada | University of Texas | 0.09 | -2.91 | 0–6 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Madi Ang | University of Texas | -0.32 | -3.32 | 0–6 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Daisy Prince | University of Texas | 1.22 | -1.78 | 0–6 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Texas A&M University | University of Texas | 82% | |
| 1 | 2 | Tulane University | University of Texas | 100% | |
| 1 | 3 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 98% | |
| 2 | 4 | Texas A&M University | University of Texas | 80% | |
| 2 | 5 | Tulane University | University of Texas | 100% | |
| 2 | 6 | Tulane University | Texas A&M University | 98% | |
| 3 | 7 | Texas A&M University | University of Texas | 79% | |
| 3 | 8 | Tulane University | University of Texas | 100% | |
| 3 | 9 | Texas A&M University | Tulane University | 2% | upset |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Aggies | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Aggies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Ashley Hoguet '26 Mia Hanes '24 Oakley Cunningham '27 |
Caitlin Briggs '27 Raquel Shulman '25 Caroline Caudron '27 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Hanna Progelhof '25 Kate Hennig '26 Sydney Krahulik '27 |
Menya Bird '26 Kennedy Long '26 Evelyn Dubois '27 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Daisy Prince '25 Madi Ang '24 Sophia Herrada '24 |
Tammy Xu '26 Reema Nannapaneni '27 Delilah D'Souza '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
