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Team Race Invite

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–0
2 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 5–3
3 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4–4
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 3–5
5 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 0–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 21,427 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 10 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.393 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.59: a typical event, more orderly than 66% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		14.84
school +0.25		Keller Morrison / Spencer Dellenbaugh 1.62
Daniel Van Heeckeren / Anna Steffen 1.29
Lucian Sharpe / William Salerno		84%6–0 (100%)+1.0
2University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Minutemen		33.07
school +0.07		Marshall Rodes / Angelina Papa
Tiernan O'Kane / Ozel Yilmazel
Charlie Fairfax / Angelina Papa		22%2–2 (50%)+1.1
3Massachusetts Maritime Academy
Buccaneers		24.01
home +0.43		Tyler Egeli / Luke Dubois 1.97
Caleb Burt / Addison Stead
John Divelbiss / Jillian Harrington		62%2–4 (33%)−1.7
4University of New Hampshire
Wildcats 1		42.34Sam Harris / Scott Senatore
Jake Lacoche / Henry Poynter
James Sullivan / Devyn Weed		17%0–2 (0%)−0.3
5University of New Hampshire
Wildcats 2		50.94Sean Lund / Abigail Forcier
Sonja Krajewski / Amelia Fisher
Robert Caldwell / Julia Cotsonas		2%0–2 (0%)−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Brown University Bears4.847.846–05.0≥+3.001.533%
2University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen3.074.422–20.9+1.351.220%
3Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers4.012.572–43.7−1.441.898%
4University of New Hampshire Wildcats 12.34-0.660–20.3≤−3.000.5>99%
5University of New Hampshire Wildcats 20.94-2.060–20.0≤−3.000.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Marshall RodesUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst0.531.872–20.9+1.351.220%
John DivelbissMassachusetts Maritime Academy0.70-0.732–43.7−1.441.898%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
13Brown University BearsUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen87%
14Massachusetts Maritime Academy BuccaneersUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 183%
15Brown University BearsUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 298%
16University of Massachusetts at Amherst MinutemenMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers29%upset
18Brown University BearsMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers69%
213Brown University BearsUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen85%
214Massachusetts Maritime Academy BuccaneersUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 183%
215Brown University BearsUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 298%
216University of Massachusetts at Amherst MinutemenMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers29%upset
218Brown University BearsMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers68%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsMinutemenBuccaneers12
Brown University Bears4–0✕WWWW
University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen2–2L✕WWW
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers2–2LL✕WW
University of New Hampshire Wildcats 12–6LLL✕✕
University of New Hampshire Wildcats 22–6LLL✕✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsMinutemenBuccaneers12
Brown University Bears4–0✕WWWW
University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen3–1L✕WWW
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers2–2LL✕WW
University of New Hampshire Wildcats 11–7LLL✕✕
University of New Hampshire Wildcats 21–7LLL✕✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 4-5-6
2 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-2-3 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 4-5-6
3 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-4-5
4 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-3-6 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 1-4-5 DSQ
5 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 3-4-6
6 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-5
7 University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 1-3-6 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 2-4-5
8 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6
9 University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 1-2-3 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 4-5-6
10 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 1-2-6 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 3-4-5
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 3-4-6
12 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-3-4 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 1-5-6
13 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 3-4-5
14 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-3-6 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 2-4-5
15 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 3-5-6
16 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 2-4-5
17 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 2-3-4 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 1-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
19 University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 1-2-4 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 3-5-6
20 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 1-2-5 def. University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1011.4 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1011.4 hPa Rain0.22 in

What this breeze does at Mass Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Mass Maritime in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →